Ushukela omhlophe
Ushukela oluhlaza ushaqisa ukwesekwa kwenselelo yasekhaya
Ushukela ongahluziwe uguquguquke kancane izolo, okukhuliswe okulindelwe ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kukashukela waseBrazil. Inkontileka eyinhloko ifinyelele ku-14.77 cents iphawundi futhi yehle yafika ku-14.54 cents ngephawundi. Intengo yokugcina yokuvala yenkontileka eyinhloko ikhuphuke ngo-0.41% ukuvala ngamasenti angu-14.76 ngephawundi ngalinye. Isivuno sikashukela ezindaweni ezikhiqiza umoba enkabeni naseningizimu yeBrazil sizokwehla siye kwehle ngeminyaka emithathu ngonyaka ozayo. Ngenxa yokuntuleka kokutshala kabusha, isivuno somoba endaweni ngayinye sizoncipha futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-ethanol kuzokwanda. I-Kingsman ilinganisela ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kukashukela enkabeni naseningizimu yeBrazil ngo-2018-19 kungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-33.99. Ngaphezu kuka-90% wokukhiqizwa kwe-Tangtang yaseChina enkabeni naseningizimu yeBrazil. Leli zinga lokukhiqiza ushukela lisho ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.1 futhi kuzoba izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-31.22 ngo-2015-16. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izindaba zokulahlwa kwendali ye-State Reserve kancane kancane zagaywa yimakethe. Nakuba intengo kashukela yehla futhi emini, yawuthola umhlaba owawulahlekile ekupheleni kwemini. Ngokubhekiselwa kokuhlangenwe nakho kwezinye izinhlobo, sikholelwa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezigodlo ngeke kuthinte imikhuba yemakethe yamaphakathi nethemu. Kubatshalizimali besikhathi esimaphakathi nesikhashana, bangalinda intengo ukuthi izinze futhi bathenge inkontileka ye-1801 ngokuthengiselana. Ngokuqondene nokutshalwa kwezimali okukhethwa kukho, umthengisi wendawo angakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi wephothifoliyo wenketho ehlanganisiwe yokuthengisa inketho yokushaya okucatshangwayo kancane ngesisekelo sokubamba indawo esikhathini esifushane. Eminyakeni engu-1-2 elandelayo, ukusebenza kwephothifoliyo yenketho ekhaviwe kungasetshenziswa njengesithuthukisi semali engenayo. Ngaleso sikhathi, kubatshalizimali benani, bangakwazi futhi ukuthenga izinketho zezingcingo ezingokoqobo ngamanani okuzivocavoca angama-6300 kuye kwangama-6400, Lapho intengo kashukela ikhuphuka ukwenza inketho ebonakalayo ibe inani langempela, ungavala inketho yekholi ngentengo ephansi yokuzivocavoca ekuqaleni futhi qhubeka nokuthenga umjikelezo omusha wenketho yekholi ebonakalayo (inketho yokushaya ngenani lokuzivocavoca elingu-6500 noma 6600), futhi kancane kancane ukhethe ithuba lokumisa inzuzo lapho intengo kashukela ifinyelela ngaphezu kwama-yuan angama-6600 /thani.
Intambo kakotini nekotini

Ukotini wase-US waqhubeka nokuwa, ukushayelwa emuva kwengcindezi kakotini yasekhaya
Ikusasa likakotini weqhwa liqhubekile nokuwa izolo njengoba ukukhathazeka mayelana nomonakalo ongase ube khona kukotini odalwe yisiphepho uMaria kwehla kwathi imakethe yalinda ukuvunwa kukakotini. Ikotini eyinhloko ye-ICE1 February yehle ngo-1.05 cents / pound yaya kuma-68.2 cents ngephawundi. Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva ye-USDA, ngesonto likaSepthemba 14, ngo-2017/18, inetha likakotini lase-US lathola amathani angama-63100, ngokunyuka kwenyanga ngenyanga ngamathani angama-47500, kanye nokunyuka konyaka ngamathani ayi-14600; ukuthunyelwa kwamathani angama-41100, ukukhuphuka kwenyanga ngenyanga ngamathani ayi-15700, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka ngamathani angama-3600, okubalelwa ku-51% wevolumu yokuthekelisa okulinganiselwe (i-USDA ngoSepthemba), ephakeme ngo-9% kuneminyaka emihlanu. inani elimaphakathi. Ohlangothini lwasekhaya, intambo ye-zhengmian kanye nekotini yayingaphansi kwengcindezi, futhi inkontileka yokugcina kakotini ka-1801 yavalwa Ukunikezwa kwakuyi-15415 yuan / ton, phansi kwe-215 yuan / ton. Inkontileka yentambo kakotini ka-1801 ivalwe ku-23210 yuan / ton, yehle ngo-175 yuan / ton. Mayelana nokushintshaniswa kukakotini obekiwe, amathani angu-30024 alethwe ngosuku lwesine lwaleli sonto, kanti umthamo wangempela wokuthengiselana wawungamathani angu-29460, ngesilinganiso sokuthengiselana esingu-98.12%. Isilinganiso senani lokwenziwe lehle ngo-124 yuan/ton laya ku-14800 yuan/ton. Ngomhla zingama-22 kuMandulo, umthamo wokuzungezisa ohleliwe wawungamathani angu-26800, kuhlanganise namathani angu-19400 kakotini weXinjiang. Izintengo ze-Spot zibambe ngokuqinile futhi zenyuka kancane, ne-CC index 3128b yokuhweba ngo-15974 yuan / ton, ikhuphuke ngamayuan ama-2 / ton kusukela osukwini lwangaphambilini lokuhweba. Inkomba yentengo ye-32 Combed Yarns yayiyi-23400 yuan / ton kanye ne-40 Combed Yarns yayingu-26900 yuan / ton. Ngamafuphi nje, ukotini waseMelika waqhubeka nokuwa, futhi izimbali ezintsha zasekhaya zafakwa ohlwini kancane kancane. I-Zheng ikotini yathinteka kulokhu ngesikhathi esifushane futhi yahlala iguquguquka phakathi nesikhathi esiphakathi nendawo. Abatshalizimali bangathenga kancane kancane ngama-bargains ngemuva kokuthi ishwa likakotini laseMelika seligaywe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, indawo yakamuva yentambo kakotini yaqina kancane kancane, singalinda intambo kakotini ukuthi izinze, kodwa futhi kancane kancane sithenge ngokuthengisa.
Isidlo sikabhontshisi

Ukusebenza okuqinile kokuthekelisa kukabhontshisi wesoya wase-US
Ubhontshisi wesoya we-CBOT ukhuphuke kancane izolo, wavala ngo-970.6 cents / PU, kodwa isamba sonke sisasebhokisini lokushaqeka. Umbiko wamasonto onke wokuthengiswa kokuthekelisa ube muhle. Esontweni lakamuva, inani lokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe likabhontshisi wase-US lalingamathani angama-2338000, liphezulu kakhulu kunesibikezelo semakethe samathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.2-1.5. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-USDA imemezele ukuthi abadayisi abazimele bathengise amathani ayi-132000 kabhontshisi wesoya eChina. Njengamanje, imakethe idlala umdlalo phakathi kwesivuno esikhulu kanye nesidingo esinamandla. Kusukela ngeSonto eledlule, izinga lokuvuna lalingu-4%, futhi izinga elihle futhi elihle lalingaphansi ngo-1% kuya ku-59% kunesonto eledlule. Umphumela ongemuhle wesivuno esiphezulu ulindelekile, futhi ukufunwa okuqinile okuqhubekayo kuzosekela intengo. Uma kuqhathaniswa nokwangaphambilini, sinethemba elincane ngemakethe. Ukwengeza, ngokufika kokukhiqizwa kwe-US, ukugxila kwakamuva kancane kancane kuzoshintshela ekutshalweni nokukhula kukabhontshisi wesoya eNingizimu Melika, futhi ingqikithi yokuqagela izokhula. Lwaluncane ushintsho ohlangothini lwasekhaya. Amasheya kabhontshisi wesoya emachwebeni nasezimbonini zikawoyela awe ngesonto eledlule, kodwa ayesesezingeni eliphezulu ngesikhathi esifanayo somlando. Ngesonto eledlule, izinga lokuqalisa isitshalo sikawoyela lenyuke laya ku-58.72%, futhi isilinganiso sokuhweba nsuku zonke somthamo wesidlo sikabhontshisi senyuke sisuka kumathani ayi-115000 ngesonto eledlule saya kumathani ayi-162000. Iqoqo lesidlo sikabhontshisi wesitshalo sikawoyela sehle emasontweni ayisithupha elandelana ngaphambili, kodwa lalulama kancane ngesonto eledlule, lenyuka lisuka kumathani angu-824900 laya kumathani angu-837700 kusukela ngo-September 17. Imboni kawoyela kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokusebenza ngezinga eliphezulu kuleli sonto ngenxa enzuzweni enkulu kanye nasekulungiseleleni ngaphambi kosuku lukazwelonke. Kuleli sonto, umthamo wokuthengiselana kanye nokulethwa endaweni ukhule kakhulu. Izolo, umthamo wokuthengiselana wesidlo sikabhontshisi wawungamathani angu-303200, inani lentengo eliphakathi lalingu-2819 (+ 28), futhi umthamo wokulethwa wawungamathani angu-79400. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukudla kukabhontshisi wesoya kuqhubeke nokulandela ubhontshisi wesoya wase-US ohlangothini olulodwa, futhi isisekelo sizohlala sizinzile ezingeni lamanje okwamanje.
Amafutha kabhontshisi wesoya

Ukulungiswa kwamafutha angaphansi kwempahla
Ubhontshisi wesoya wase-US uvamise ukuguquguquka futhi ukhuphuke kancane izolo, ngaphansi kwesidingo esinamandla sokuthekelisa sikabhontshisi wase-US. Ngemva kwesikhathi esifushane sokulungiswa kwemakethe, isidingo esinamandla sase-US sizophinde sikhawulele ukukhuphuka kokuphela kwenani le-balance sheet kanye ne-warehouse kuya kusilinganiso sokusetshenziswa, futhi intengo ingase ihlale ibuthakathaka kuze kube seqophelweni eliphansi lokuvuna kwesizini. UMa pan uwile izolo. Umphumela ngoSepthemba, okuhlanganisa nesikhathi sakamuva, kulindeleke ukuthi ululame ngokushesha. Kusukela ngomhla ka-1 kuye ku-15 wezi-9, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Ma palm kukhuphuke ngo-20% ngenyanga, futhi umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-India kanye nezwekazi elincane wehla. Lo mzuliswano wokukhuphuka kweMalay ube phezulu kakhulu. Uma okukhiphayo sekuphinde kwalulama esigabeni sakamuva, i-Ma pan izoba nokulungiswa okukhulu. Izisekelo zasekhaya azikashintshi kakhulu. Isamba samafutha esundu singamathani angama-360000, kanti uwoyela wesoya ungamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.37. Ukulungiswa kwesitoko semikhosi kungene esigabeni sakamuva, futhi umthamo wokuthenga uye wehla kancane kancane. Esigabeni sakamuva, ukufika kwamafutha esundu eHong Kong kancane kancane kuyanda, futhi ukucindezela kuyavela kancane kancane. Ikusasa lezimpahla liqhubekile nokuwa izolo, isimo esifushane saqhubeka, futhi uwoyela walandela ukuncipha. Ekusebenzeni, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi ulinde futhi ubone isimo semakethe. Ngemuva kokuthi ingozi ikhishwe ngokuphelele, singacabangela ukungenelela kwamafutha emifino ngezisekelo eziqinile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isisekelo samafutha esundu sehla ngemva kokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo, futhi inani elihlobene lamafutha kabhontshisi nalo lalisezingeni eliphakeme ngokuqhathaniswa. Esigabeni sakamuva, izinga lokutholwa kwesivuno lalishesha, futhi i-Mapan nayo yayisenqubweni yokulungiswa. Ngokuphathelene ne-arbitrage, ukungenelela okufika ngesikhathi ekusakazeni kwentengo yesundu likabhontshisi noma isundu semifino kungacatshangwa.
Ummbila nesitashi

Izintengo zekusasa zikhuphuke kancane
Intengo yasekhaya yommbila yayizinzile futhi yehla, phakathi kwayo intengo yokuthenga amabhizinisi okucubungula ummbila ajulile eNyakatho yeChina yaqhubeka nokuwa, kuyilapho leyo yezinye izifunda yahlala izinzile; intengo yendawo yesitashi ngokuvamile yayizinzile, futhi abanye abakhiqizi banciphisa izingcaphuno zabo ngo-20-30 yuan / ton. Ngokuphathelene nezindaba zemakethe, i-starch inventory ye-29 deep-processing enterprises + amachweba i-Tianxia granary igxile ekulandeleni ikhuphuke yaba amathani ayi-176900 isuka kumathani ayi-161700 ngesonto eledlule; ngo-September 21, i-sub loan kanye sub repayment plan kwaba ukudayisa amathani 48970 isitoreji sesikhashana corn ngo-2013, futhi ivolumu langempela transaction kwaba amathani 48953, nge isilinganiso intengo kuthengiselana 1335 yuan; uhlelo lokuthengisa olunenkontileka lwe-China National Grain Storage Company Limited luhlele ukuhweba amathani angu-903801 ommbila wokugcina wesikhashana ngo-2014, ngevolumu yangempela yokuthenga amathani angu-755459 kanye nenani lentengo eliphakathi lama-yuan angu-1468 . anda kancane ekugcineni. Uma sibheke phambili esigabeni sakamuva, uma kucatshangelwa amanani aphezulu ezindawo zokukhiqiza nezokuthengisa ezihambisana nentengo yesikhathi eside sommbila, akuhambisani nesidingo sangempela kanye nesidingo sokugcwaliswa kabusha kommbila omusha. Ngakho-ke, sigcina ukwahlulela okuhle; mayelana nesitashi, uma kubhekwa umthelela wokuhlolwa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo noma ukuba buthaka, kuzoba namandla amasha okukhiqiza ngaphambi nangemuva kokufakwa kuhlu kommbila omusha esikhathini esizayo. Silindele ukuthi ukunikezwa kwesikhathi eside kanye nesidingo kuzothambekela ekubeni ngcono. Kuhlanganiswe nokulindela kwentengo yommbila kanye nenqubomgomo yoxhaso engaba khona ukuze kucutshungulwe ngokujulile, sikholelwa futhi ukuthi intengo yesikhathi esizayo yesitashi nayo ilinganiselwa ngokweqile. Kulokhu, siphakamisa ukuthi abatshalizimali bangaqhubeka nokubamba ishidi elingenalutho lommbila / isitashi noma iphothifoliyo yombila wesitashi ukusabalala kwe-arbitrage ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, futhi bathathe ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti njengokulahlekelwa kokuma.
iqanda

Izintengo ze-Spot ziyaqhubeka nokwehla
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Zhihua, intengo yamaqanda ezweni lonke iqhubekile nokuwa, ngenani elimaphakathi ezindaweni ezikhiqizayo eziyinhloko lehla ngo-0.04 yuan / Jin kanye nentengo emaphakathi ezindaweni zokuthengisa eziyinhloko zehla ngo-0.13 yuan / Jin. Ukuqapha ukuhweba kukhombisa ukuthi abahwebi kulula ukuthola izimpahla futhi bayaphuza ukuhambisa izimpahla. Sisonke isimo sokuhweba sithuthuke kancane uma siqhathaniswa nosuku lwangaphambilini. Uhlu lwabahwebi luphansi, futhi luyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka kancane uma luqhathaniswa nosuku lwangaphambilini. Okulindelekile kwabahwebi kuba buthaka, ikakhulukazi e-East China naseningizimu-ntshonalanga ye-China Bearish okulindelwe kunamandla. Intengo yamaqanda yaqhubeka yehla ekuseni, yaphindeka kancane kancane ntambama, futhi yavaleka kakhulu. Mayelana nentengo yokuvala, inkontileka ngoJanuwari yenyuka ngama-yuan angama-95, inkontileka ngoMeyi yanda ngama-yuan angama-45, kanti inkontileka ngoSepthemba yayizofika. Kusukela ekuhlaziyweni kwemakethe, singabona ukuthi intengo yamaqanda iqhubekile nokwehla kakhulu esikhathini esizayo esiseduze njengoba kuhleliwe, futhi ukwehla kwentengo yesikhathi esizayo kungaphansi kwenani lendawo, futhi isaphulelo senani eliya phambili sesishintshile. ibe yiprimiyamu, okubonisa ukuthi okulindelekile emakethe kushintshile, okungukuthi, kusukela kulokho okulindelekile okubonisa ukwehla kwenani lentengo esikhathini esidlule kuya ethembeni lokukhuphuka ngaphambi koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo esikhathini esizayo. Ngokombono wokusebenza kwemakethe, imakethe ingase ilindeleke ukuthi ibe cishe ku-4000 njengendawo ephansi yentengo kaJanuwari. Kulokhu, kunconywa ukuthi abatshalizimali balinde futhi babone.
Ingulube ephilayo

Qhubeka nokuwa
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-zhuyi.com, intengo emaphakathi yezingulube eziphilayo yayingu-14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg ngaphansi kosuku lwangaphambilini. Intengo yezingulube yaqhubeka nokuwa ngaphandle kokuxoxisana. Sithole izindaba namuhla ekuseni zokuthi intengo yokuthenga yezinkampani ezihlabayo yehle ngo-0.1 yuan/kg. Intengo eNyakatho-mpumalanga yeChina yephule i-7, futhi intengo enkulu ingu-14 yuan / kg. Intengo yezingulube eMpumalanga China yehla, futhi intengo yezingulube kwezinye izifunda ngaphandle kwaseShandong yayisengaphezulu kuka-14.5 yuan / kg. UHenan eCentral China uhole ukwehla, kwehle ngo-0.15 yuan / kg. La machibi amabili azinzile okwesikhashana, futhi intengo evamile ingu-14.3 yuan/kg. ENingizimu China, intengo yehle ngo-0.1 yuan/kg, intengo evamile yaseGuangdong naseGuangxi yayingu-14.5 yuan/kg, kanti i-Hainan yayingu-14 yuan/kg. INingizimu-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-0.1 yuan/kg, iSichuan neChongqing 15.1 yuan/kg. Inganekwane yegolide, isiliva neshumi injena nje. Akukho ukusekelwa okuhle kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi liyakhula izinga lokuthengisa. Amabhizinisi ahlabayo asizakala ngalesi simo futhi ukwanda akubonakali. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo yezingulube izoqhubeka nokuwa.
Ukunika amandla
amalahle omusi

Ukuvalwa kwendawo ethekwini, ukushayelwa emuva kwentengo ephezulu
Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindaba ezifana nesimo esibi esiphelele esimnyama kanye nesiqinisekiso sokuhlinzekwa esisekelwe kunqubomgomo, ikusasa lamalahle eliguquguqukayo lihlehliswe kakhulu izolo, inkontileka enkulu engu-01 ivalwe ngo-635.6 ekuhwebeni kwasebusuku, futhi umehluko wentengo phakathi kuka-1-5 wehla waba ngu-56.4. Mayelana nemakethe yamabala, ethintwe yiNgqungquthela Kazwelonke ye-19 ezayo yeQembu LamaKhomanisi laseChina, ezinye izimayini ezivulekile eShaanxi naseShanxi zimise ukukhiqiza futhi zanciphisa ukukhiqizwa. Nakuba imingcele yokuqalisa iziqhumane iye yasuswa e-Inner Mongolia, ukuhlinzekwa kwezindawo ezikhiqizayo kusaqinile, futhi intengo yamalahle e-pithead iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Mayelana namachweba, intengo yamalahle ethekwini isasezingeni eliphezulu. Ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme kanye nokucatshangelwa kwezingozi zemakethe zesikhathi eside, abahwebi abanawo umdlandla wokulayisha izimpahla, futhi izinga lokwamukelwa kwezinkampani ezingaphansi komfula ngenani eliphezulu lamanje aliphezulu. I-Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal umusi wamalahle + 0-702 yuan / ton.

Ezindabeni, iKhomishana kazwelonke yezokuThuthukiswa neziNguquko isanda kukhipha isaziso sokuqinisekisa ukuthuthwa kwamalahle, ugesi, uwoyela negesi, ithi zonke izifundazwe, izifunda ezizimele namadolobhakazi kanye namabhizinisi athintekayo kufanele aqinise ukuqapha nokuhlaziya ukukhiqizwa kwamalahle kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamalahle. isidingo sezokuthutha, ukutholakala ngesikhathi kanye nokuxhumana ukuze kuxazululwe izinkinga ezisalele ekuhlinzekweni, kanye nokulwela ukuqinisekisa ukutholakala kwamalahle okuzinzile ngaphambi nangemuva kweNgqungquthela Kazwelonke ye-19 yeQembu LamaKhomanisi laseChina.

Ukuqanjwa kwamachweba asenyakatho kuphinde kwakhuphuka, ngesilinganiso somthamo wokuthunyelwa kwansuku zonke wamathani angama-575000, ukudluliswa kwezitimela ezimaphakathi nsuku zonke ngamathani angama-660000, ukusungulwa kwetheku lamathani ayizigidi eziyi-8-5.62, ukusungulwa kwetheku laseCaofeidian - amathani ayizigidi ezingama-30 kuye kwangama-3.17, kanye i-inventory ye-Jingtang Port ye-SDIC + 4 kuya ku-1.08 million amathani.

Izolo, ukusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kwezitshalo zikagesi kuphinde kwagcwala. Amaqembu ayisithupha amakhulu aphehla amandla asogwini asebenzise amathani angama-730000 amalahle, anenani eliphelele lamathani ayizigidi eziyi-9.83 esitokweni kanye nezinsuku eziyi-13.5 zokugcina amalahle.

Inkomba yezimpahla zamalahle ogwini lwaseChina inyuke ngo-0.01% yafinyelela ku-1172 izolo
Sekukonke, imihlangano ebalulekile kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya ku-Okthoba kanye nokuhlolwa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo/ukuphepha kwezindawo zokukhiqiza kungase kuqhubeke nokukhawulela ukukhishwa kokunikezwayo. Nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kwezitshalo zikagesi ezansi nomfula kwehlile, kusesezingeni eliphezulu, futhi ukusekelwa kwendawo kunamandla. Emakethe yesikhathi esizayo, inkontileka engu-01 ihambisana nenkathi yokushisa ephezulu, kodwa kunengcindezi yokufaka umthamo wokubuyisela ngesikhathi, futhi ukucindezela okuphezulu kubonakala. Kufanele sinake isimo semakethe esizungezile, izinga lokwehla lokusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kanye nokukhululwa komthamo wokukhiqiza othuthukisiwe.
I-PTA

Ukukhiqizwa kwe-polyester nokumaketha ngokuvamile, ukusebenza okubuthakathaka kwe-PTA
Izolo, isimo sempahla besingesihle, i-PTA ibibuthakathaka, futhi inkontileka eyinhloko ye-01 ivalwe ku-5268 ekuhwebeni kwasebusuku, futhi umehluko wentengo phakathi kuka-1-5 wanda wafinyelela ku-92. Ukuthengiselana kwemakethe kunomthamo omkhulu, abahlinzeki abavamile ikakhulukazi. ukuthenga izindawo, ezinye izimboni ze-polyester zithole ama-oda, isisekelo semakethe siyaqhubeka nokuncipha. Phakathi nosuku, indawo eyinhloko kanye ne-01 Contract kuxoxisane ngesisekelo somsebenzi ngesaphulelo esingu-20-35, irisidi ye-warehouse kanye no-01 wenkontileka enikezwa ngesaphulelo esingu-30; phakathi nosuku, kwathathwa i-5185-5275, i-5263-5281 yalethwa ekuthengiseni, futhi iresidi ye-warehouse engu-5239 yathengiswa.

Izolo, ikhotheshini ye-PX ibuye ngokushaqeka, futhi i-CFR yanikezwa ngo-847 USD / T (- 3) ngobusuku obubodwa e-Asia, futhi imali yokucubungula yayicishe ibe ngu-850. I-PX ibike i-840 USD / T ngo-Okthoba kanye ne-852 USD / T ngoNovemba. Ngokuzayo, i-PX yasekhaya ingase ikhishwe, kodwa akulindelekile ukuthi iphele.

Ngokuphathelene nemboni ye-PTA, isikhathi sokulungisa kabusha isethi yeplanti ye-PTA enomphumela wonyaka wamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5 esiFundazweni saseJiangsu sandiswe cishe ngezinsuku ezi-5; umkhumbi wokuqala we-PX webhizinisi le-PTA e-Huabin No.1 umugqa wokukhiqiza ufikile e-Hong Kong muva nje, kodwa izindaba zethangi lesitoreji azizange zisetshenziswe ngokugcwele, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ziqale ngoNovemba; ibhizinisi le-PTA esiFundazweni saseFujian lisayine isivumelwano sokuhlela kabusha, futhi inqubo yokuqalisa ingase isheshiswe ngaleso sikhathi, futhi uhlelo lokuqala luwukuqalisa kabusha ingxenye yomthamo wokukhiqiza engxenyeni yesine.

Ohlangothini olungezansi komfula, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa okuphelele kwentambo ye-polyester ye-Jiangsu ne-Zhejiang bekusejwayelekile izolo, ngesilinganiso esilinganiselwa ku-60-70% cishe ngo-3:30 pm; ukuthengiswa kwe-polyester ephotha ngokuqondile bekuyisilinganiso, futhi umfula ongezansi wawudinga nje ukugcwaliswa, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengisa okuningi kwakuzungeze u-50-80%.

Sekukonke, ukunakekelwa kwezitshalo ze-PTA kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya ku-Okthoba, kuhlanganiswe ne-polyester ephansi yokusungula nomthwalo ophezulu, ukunikezwa kwesikhathi esifushane kanye nesakhiwo sokufunwa sisasekelwa. Kodwa-ke, kwinkontileka yesikhathi esizayo engu-01, ukusekelwa kwe-PX ohlangothini lwezindleko bekubuthakathaka ngekota yesine. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi kusukela ngoNovemba kuya kuDisemba yamadivayisi ayo amasha namadala, kwakunzima ukugcina izindleko eziphezulu zokucubungula, futhi ingcindezi yokubuyela emuva kwe-PTA yahlala. Kufanele sinake isimo esiphelele semakethe yezimpahla, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polyester engezansi nomfula kanye nezinguquko zokuthengisa kanye nempahla kanye namanani kawoyela amazwe ngamazwe.
I-Tianjiao

I-Shanghai Rubber 1801 ingase izinze esikhathini esifushane
Ngokuqondene nokwehla kwakamuva (1) 1801 intengo yokusabalalisa ukuhlehla okuphumelelayo, idatha kusukela ngo-Agasti yayingaphansi kunokulindeleke isikhathi eside, iqinisekisa isidingo esibuthakathaka sezikhundla ezimfushane (2) ipuleti elihlangothini lokunikezela libuthakathaka. (3) Embonini yenjoloba, iningi lezikhundla ezimfushane ekucushweni kwediski, amasethi angajwayelekile, ukuthambekela okuthathu okufanayo, okuholela ekutheni izinsuku zokuhweba eziyi-11 zibuyele kumaphuzu angama-800. 2. Esikhathini esifushane, ngicabanga ukuthi i-14500-15000 izohlala futhi ibuyele kabusha ukuze ibone wonke umkhiqizo wezimboni kanye nomnyama.

PE?

Ngaphambi komkhosi, isidingo sokulungiswa kwempahla sisadinga ukukhululwa, futhi ukulenga kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kubheke phansi kuyakhula futhi isimo sempahla enkulu nesempahla siba buthakathaka, futhi kusenengcindezi esikhathini esifushane.

NgoSepthemba 21, intengo ye-LLD ex yefekthri yaseSinopec eNyakatho neChina, e-East China, enkabeni ye-China, i-PetroChina, i-East China, i-South China, i-Southwest China kanye ne-Northwest China yehla ngo-50-200 yuan/ton, kanye nemakethe esezingeni eliphansi. intengo eNyakatho China yehle yaya ku-9350 yuan / ton (imboni yamakhemikhali yamalahle). Njengamanje, ilitha elingu-l1801 lamanzi eNyakatho yeShayina ladayiselwa ama-yuan angu-170/T. intengo yangaphambili yefekthri yezitshalo ze-petrochemical yehliswa endaweni enkulu. Kwakunabahwebi abengeziwe ababezothumela izimpahla ngenani lemakethe elihlanekezelwe, futhi inhloso yokwamukela ezansi nomfula yayivamile, Nokho, isidingo sempahla eshibhile sinyukile, futhi ingcindezi ohlangothini lwendawo isamile; ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo-September 20, intengo ephansi ye-CFR Far East elingana no-RMB 9847/T, imakethe yangaphandle ilenga yabheka phansi yafinyelela ku-327 yuan/T, futhi intengo yendawo isabheke phansi ukuze ifinyelele ku-497 yuan/T. ukwesekwa kwangaphandle kuzoqhubeka nokuba nomthelela kwivolumu yokungenisa ezweni ngo-Okthoba; ngokomehluko wentengo yemikhiqizo ehlobene, umehluko wamanani phakathi kwe-hd-lld ne-ld-lld ngu-750 yuan / T kanye no-650 yuan / T ngokulandelana, futhi imikhiqizo ehlobene ne-plate Face pressure iyaqhubeka nokudamba, i-arbitrage engajwayelekile amathuba asemancane. Sekukonke, ngokombono wokusabalala kwentengo, ukwesekwa okungenzeka kwezimakethe zangaphandle kuye kwaqiniswa, ingcindezi emikhiqizweni ehlobene iqhubekile nokudamba, futhi ukucindezela ohlangothini lwendawo kuye kwadamba kancane kancane ngokuwa kwamanani. Nakuba ukwehla okukhulu kwamanani entengo yesikhathi esizayo kuqhubeka nokuvimbela isidingo sesikhathi esifushane ngenxa yokunciphisa isikali se-US Federal Reserve kanye nokuba buthaka komkhathi wempahla yonke, isidingo sezimpahla ezilungele amaholide cishe sizokhululwa.

Ngokombono wokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, i-inventory yePetroChina iqhubekile yehla cishe amathani angaba ngu-700000 izolo, futhi amakhemikhali e-petrochemicals aqhubeka nokuthengisa inzuzo ku-inventory ngaphambi komkhosi. Ukwengeza, ukukhululwa okumaphakathi kwendawo yokuqala yokuhlanganisa uthango, okuhambisana nokuba buthaka kwakamuva komkhathi omkhulu kanye nempahla, kwenyusa ingcindezi yesikhashana. Nokho, le miphumela engemihle izogayeka kancane kancane ekwehleni kwentengo kwangaphambi kwesikhathi. Ukwengeza, kunesidingo sokulungiswa kwezimpahla ngaphambi komkhosi ongaphansi komfula esikhathini esizayo esiseduze Ngemva kokuzinza, amathuba okufunwa azovela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuguqulwa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuzokwandiswa, ingcindezi emikhiqizweni engajwayelekile izokhululeka, futhi ingcindezi yendawo izogaywa kancane kancane yimakethe, futhi kusazoba nethuba lokuthi isidingo sizophinda sithathe. isikhathi sakamuva (gcinani ngaphambi komkhosi). Ngakho-ke, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi kufanele silinde ithuba lokuhlolwa kwe-warehouse encane ngaphambi komkhosi futhi sibambe izikhundla ezimfushane ngokucophelela ekuqaleni. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ububanzi bentengo ye-l1801 yi-9450-9650 yuan / ton.

PP?

Isimo sezulu esikhulu nesempahla siba buthakathaka, ingcindezi yokuqalisa kabusha idivayisi nokwesekwa komehluko wentengo, isidingo sesitoko, ukuchema okuqaphile kwe-PP

NgoSepthemba 21, amanani entengo yefekthri yasekhaya yaseSinopec eNyakatho neChina, eNingizimu China kanye nasezifundeni zasePetroChina South China ehliswe ngo-200 yuan / ton, intengo yemakethe esezingeni eliphansi eMpumalanga China yaqhubeka yehla yafinyelela ku-8500 yuan / ton, ukukhuphuka kwentengo. ye-pp1801 endaweni yase-East China yehliselwe ku-110 yuan / T, intengo yesikhathi esizayo yayingaphansi kwengcindezi, abahwebi bakhulisa ukuthunyelwa kokupakisha, ukuthengiselana okuphansi komfula okwakudingeka nje ukuthengwa, umthombo wamanani aphansi wagaywa, futhi ukucindezela kwendawo kwadamba Intengo ephansi yaqhubeka nokukhuphuka yaya ku-8100 yuan / ton, intengo yokusekela impushana yayicishe ibe ngu-8800 yuan / ton, futhi impushana yayingenayo. inzuzo, ngakho okunye ukusekelwa kuzobonakala kancane kancane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngoSepthemba 20, intengo ephansi ye-CFR Far East yentengo yangaphandle ye-RMB yehle kancane yaya ku-9233 yuan/ton, i-pp1801 yaguqulwa yaba ku-623 yuan/ton, futhi isitoko samanje saguqulelwa ku-733 yuan/ton. Iwindi lokuthekelisa selivuliwe, futhi ukwesekwa kwangaphandle kuyaqhubeka nokuqina. Ngokombono wokusabalala kwentengo, isisekelo sihlala siphansi, ukunikezwa kwezimpahla kuyaqiniswa, futhi indawo ihlehlisiwe, okucindezela imakethe. Esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, abahwebi nabo baye bandisa imizamo yabo yokuthutha, futhi ingcindezi yesikhashana iye yanda. Kodwa-ke, ngokulungiswa kwentengo, ingcindezi ye-aftermarket ingancishiswa kancane kancane, futhi ukuzimisela phansi komfula ukwamukela izimpahla kuphinde kwakhuphuka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kokubili iphaneli kanye nendawo kuye kwaqhubeka nokulenga phansi emakethe yangaphandle nge-margin enkulu, futhi iphaneli nayo iseduze ne-Powder esikhundleni sokusekela, isenzo sonke singenziwa buthaka, futhi ukwesekwa kokuhluka kwentengo nakho kuyaqiniswa. .

Ngokombono wokuphakelwa nesidingo, izinga lokunakekelwa kwemishini ye-PP lizinzile okwesikhashana lafinyelela ku-14.55% futhi isilinganiso sokudweba sazinza okwesikhashana safinyelela ku-28.23% izolo. Nokho, i-Shenhua Baotou, iShijiazhuang Refinery kanye ne-Haiwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. banezinhlelo zokuthi baqale kabusha maduze nje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza uzokhishwa kancane kancane (i-Ningmei isigaba III, i-Yuntianhua (600096, Ngaphezu kwalokho, okwamanje, isisekelo sisephansi, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla ezihleliwe kunkontileka ye-01 kuye kwabuyela kancane kancane endaweni. Le ngxenye yokucindezela iye yagaywa ngokuwa kwentengo Muva nje, isidingo sokunitha sepulasitiki sikhuphuka ngezinga eliphansi Isidingo esiphelele sonyaka asikafakazelwa. kunesidingo sokulungiswa kwezimpahla ngaphambi koMkhosi we-11 Njengamanje, i-PP isazoba yingcindezi ohlangothini lwendawo Qhubeka nokugaya umdlalo phakathi kokuphindaphinda kwesizini kokufunwa nokugaya, ngakho-ke idiski yesikhathi esifushane noma ngokuqaphela isikhathi esifushane. , egxile ekusekelweni kokufunwa kokufunwa, i-upside down yangaphakathi nangaphandle kanye nokushintshwa kwe-powder Kulinganiselwa ukuthi uhla lwamanani lwe-pp1801 lwanamuhla luyi-8500-8650 yuan / ton.
i-methanol

I-MEG iwile, inzuzo ye-olefin iphansi nendawo yesaphulelo, indawo yokukhiqiza iqinile, i-methanol ifushane ngokuqapha

Ibala: ngoSepthemba 21, intengo yendawo ye-methanol yakhuphuka futhi yehla enye nenye, okuthi, intengo ephansi ye-Taicang yayingu-2730 yuan / ton, intengo yendawo yaseShandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia naseningizimu-ntshonalanga yeChina 2670 (- 200), 2700 (- 200), 2720 (- 260), 2520 (- 500 wezimpahla) kanye 2750 (- 180 wezimpahla) yuan / ton, futhi intengo ephansi ekupheleni izimpahla kulethwa endaweni yokukhiqiza kwaba 2870-3020 yuan / ton, futhi ukukhiqizwa kanye ukumaketha arbitrage iwindi yavalwa ngokuphelele 01 amapheya Taicang waqhubeka hlala ubheke phansi ufike ku-32 yuan / ton. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuvalwa okuqhubekayo kwefasitela le-arbitrage lokukhiqiza nokuthengisa, lokhu ngokungangabazeki kunokusekelwa okungaqondile kwendawo yechweba kanye nediski;

Umehluko wentengo wangaphakathi nangaphandle: ngo-September 20, i-CFR China indawo ye-RMB intengo yehle futhi yaya ku-2895 yuan / ton (kuhlanganise namashaji ahlukahlukene angama-50), i-ma801 iguqule intengo yangaphandle yaba ngu-197 yuan/T, i-East China ibala iguqule intengo yangaphandle yaba ku-165 yuan / T, kanye nokusekelwa kwemakethe yangaphandle kwendawo yasekhaya nediski kwaqiniswa.

Izindleko: intengo yamalahle ye-Ordos (600295, iyunithi yokuxilongwa) kanye namalahle e-dakakou angu-5500 e-Jining yesiFundazwe saseShandong yayingu-391 no-640 yuan / ton izolo, futhi izindleko ezihambisana nendawo yephaneli yayingu-2221 no-2344 yuan / ton. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izindleko ze-methanol zenhloko yegesi ye-Sichuan Chongqing zazingu-1830 yuan / ton eMpumalanga China, kanti legesi ye-coke oven eNyakatho neChina yayingama-yuan angu-2240 / ton eMpumalanga China;

Isidingo esikhulayo: ngokwemali yokucubungula idiski, i-PP + MEG yehla futhi yaya ku-2437 yuan / ton, isesezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, i-disk kanye nezindleko zokucubungula indawo ye-pp-3 * ma ziphinde zawa ku-570 no-310 yuan / T. izolo, i-disk ye-Meg yawa kakhulu, ikhulisa ukucindezela okulethwe yi-PP ngokufihla;

Sekukonke, amanani entengo yesikhathi esizayo aqhubekile nokwehla kakhulu izolo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwehliswa kwe-MEG kanye ne-Federal Reserve, okubangele ukwehla okubukhali emkhathini wempahla jikelele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-PP isabhekene nengcindezi yomthamo omusha wokukhiqiza, ukuqalisa kabusha idivayisi kanye nokuphuma kwendawo yokuqinisa idiski esikhathini esifushane. Kodwa-ke, kunezimpawu zokuncipha kancane kancane kwengcindezi eyisisekelo, futhi intengo yendawo isaqinile, ngokunwetshwa kwendawo embozwe idiski, kanye nokupaka okuhleliwe kwemishini yaseBrunei Kanye nokusekelwa okuhle ngemuva kokuqinisekiswa kwemibhalo yokuphatha olwandle, ukutholakala kwamachweba aseMpumalanga China nakho kwehle ngezinga eliphezulu kuleli sonto. Kuyaqapha ukuthi ube mfushane ngesikhathi esifushane, futhi akunconywa ukujaha isikhashana. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi uhla lwamanani nsuku zonke lwe-ma801 luyi-2680-2750 yuan / ton.
uwoyela ongahluziwe

Ukugxila emakethe umhlangano wanyanga zonke we-OPEC jmmc

Izindaba zemakethe nedatha ebalulekile

Ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI kaNovemba livale u-$0.14, noma u-0.28%, laya ku-$50.55/umphongolo. Ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe ka-Brent kaNovemba likhuphuke ngo-$0.14, noma u-0.25%, laya ku-$56.43/umphongolo. Ikusasa likaphethiloli lika-NYMEX ka-Okthoba livalwe ku-$1.6438/gallon. Ikusasa likawoyela wokushisisa le-NYMEX livalwe ngo-$1.8153/gallon.

2. Kubikwa ukuthi umhlangano wokuqondisa ukuncishiswa kokukhiqiza kulindeleke ukuthi ubanjelwe e-Vienna ngo-4:00 ntambama ngesikhathi sase-Beijing ngoLwesihlanu, ophethwe yi-Kuwait futhi uhanjelwe yizikhulu zaseVenezuela, e-Algeria, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe. Umhlangano uzodingida izindaba ezinjengokwelulwa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa umkhiqizo kanye nokuqapha ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuhlolwe izinga lokuqalisa lokunciphisa, kubika i-Reuters. Kodwa-ke, ummeleli we-OPEC uthe okwamanje, wonke amazwe awazange afinyelele ukuvumelana ngokunwetshwa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqiza, futhi konke kusazoxoxwa ngakho.

Ungqongqoshe wezamandla waseRussia: Amazwe we-OPEC kanye namazwe angewona ama-OPEC azoxoxa ngodaba lokulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe emhlanganweni waseVienna. Ngokwezindaba zemakethe, i-OPEC Technical Committee yaphakamisa ukuthi ongqongqoshe bamazwe akhiqiza uwoyela kufanele baqondise ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe kwamanye amazwe njengesengezo esivumelwaneni sokunciphisa umkhiqizo.

4. I-Goldman Sachs: kulindeleke ukuthi izingxoxo ze-OPEC ngeke zandise isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela, kodwa kusesekuseni kakhulu ukwenza isiphetho. Kukholakala ukuthi ikomidi eliqondisa ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela le-OPEC ngeke liphakamise ukwelula isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kuleli sonto. Izisekelo eziqinile zamanje zisekela ukuphindaphinda kukaGoldman kokulindela kwakhe ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kukawoyela kuzokhuphukela ku-$58 / umphongolo ekupheleni konyaka.

I-Tankertracker: Ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe we-OPEC kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngo-140000 B / D kuye ku-23.82 million B / D kusukela ngo-Okthoba 7.

L. ingqondo yokutshala imali

Muva nje, imakethe igxile emhlanganweni wanyanga zonke we-jmmc we-OPEC, kanye nezindaba ezimbalwa imakethe ezinaka kakhulu yilezi: 1. Ukuthi isivumelwano sokunciphisa umkhiqizo sizokwelulwa yini; 2. Kungaqiniswa kanjani ukuqaliswa kanye nokugadwa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa umkhiqizo, nokuthi izinkomba zokuthumela ngaphandle zizoqashwa yini; 3. Ukuthi iNigeria neLibya bazojoyina yini ithimba lokunciphisa ukukhiqiza. Ngokuvamile, ngenxa yokugcwala okukhulu kukawoyela kulo nyaka, i-OPEC ingase ingacabangi ukwelula isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa esikhathini samanje, kodwa akushiwo ukuthi umhlangano wesikhashana uzobanjwa ngekota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo ukuze andise ukuncishiswa kokukhiqiza. Silinganisela ukuthi umhlangano we-jmmc namuhla uzogxila ekutheni kungaqiniswa kanjani ukugadwa kanye nokusetshenziswa kokunciphisa umkhiqizo. Nokho, kusenezinkinga eziningi zobuchwepheshe okufanele zixazululwe ekugadweni komthamo wokuthekelisa. Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa kweNigeria neLibya akukabuyiselwa ngokugcwele ezingeni elivamile, ngakho-ke amathuba okunciphisa ukukhiqizwa angase angabi mkhulu.
itiyela

Imakethe yezimpahla iphansi iyonke, ukuthunyelwa kwetiyela kube ngcono
Ukubuka konke:
Imakethe yezimpahla zesikhathi esizayo iyonke ikhombise ukwehla izolo, lapho amalahle e-coking ne-ferrosilicon ehle ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-5, imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali ivamise ukuwa, i-methanol ngaphezu kuka-4%, irabha kanye ne-PVC ngaphezu kuka-3%. Ikusasa letiyela elithile ligcine inkambiso eyehlayo phakathi nosuku lokuhweba. Intengo yokuvala yenkontileka eyinhloko 1712 izolo ntambama yayingu-2438 yuan / ton, okwakuyi-34 yuan / ton ngaphansi kwentengo yayizolo yokuxazulula, ngokuncipha kwe-1.38% 5500 izandla. Lokhu kwehla kuthinteka kakhulu isimo semakethe yempahla, futhi akusekho ukuwohloka kwesisekelo setiyela.

Imakethe yamabala yahlala izinzile, nezintengo zentengiso ezijwayelekile ezingama-2400-2500 yuan / ton emakethe yaseMpumalanga China, 2350-2450 yuan / ton emakethe yaseShandong kanye no-2450-2550 yuan / ton emakethe yaseNingizimu China. Njengamanje, ngemva kokuphela kokuqondisa kwezemvelo, ukwakhiwa komgwaqo ongezansi komfula kuyabuyiselwa kancane kancane. Ngemva kokuphela kokuqondisa kwezemvelo eShandong, ukuthunyelwa kwendawo yokuhluza sekuthuthukile, futhi isifunda saseMpumalanga China naso siyalulama kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, okwamanje, kunemvula eningi kule ndawo, futhi umthamo awukakakhishwa. ENyakatho ye-China, abadayisi bamatasa kakhulu ekulungiseleleni izimpahla ngaphambi kweholide Losuku Lwesizwe, futhi isimo sokuthunyelwa jikelele sihle Isimo segesi sihle, futhi ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kuqhathaniswa kahle. Njengamanje, isikhathi sokwakha enyakatho yeShayina cishe inyanga eyodwa ukusuka maphakathi kuya ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokugcina zika-Okthoba. Umthelela wemvelo ekwakhiweni komgwaqo uyancipha, futhi kufanele kube nomsebenzi osheshayo esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ukuze kusekelwe isidingo setiyela. Njengoba iholidi Losuku Lukazwelonke lisondela, isimo sokutholakala kwempahla emaphakathi eShandong, Hebei, enyakatho-mpumalanga nakwezinye izifunda siye sadambisa ingcindezi yokusungula izindawo zokuhluza. Ohlangothini lwezindleko, itiyela lendawo libe sesimweni esilinganiselwe. Ngemuva kokuthi intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe inyusiwe, inzuzo yasetiyetha yendawo ehluzwayo yehle ngo-110 yuan yaya ku-154 yuan/ton ngesonto eledlule, futhi isikhala sokunye ukwehla kwentengo yendawo silinganiselwe. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngenxa yomthelela wezinto zokuvikela imvelo ohlangothini lwesidingo kanye nokulawulwa kokungcoliswa komoya ebusika, isidingo sesikhathi esizayo singase sibe ngaphansi kunokulindelekile. Ukwengeza, ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, amandla okukhiqiza ukucwengwa kwetiyela ezifundeni ezihlukahlukene azokwenyuka kakhulu, futhi namandla okukhiqiza ukucwengiswa kwetiyela azokwenyuka kakhulu.

Sekukonke, uma kuqhathaniswa nesidingo setiyela ngesikhathi esivamile sokuphakama, kunendawo elinganiselwe yokwehla okubukhali okwengeziwe. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngokuvuselelwa kokwakhiwa komfula esikhathini esizayo, kuzoba nendawo yokukhula eyengeziwe.

Iziphakamiso zamasu:
2500 yuan intengo, ukuxoxisana isikhathi eside, naka ushintsho lwanyanga zonke umehluko wentengo.

Ubungozi becebo:
Ukukhiqizwa kwetiyela kudlulele, futhi ukunikezwa sekuphelile, futhi intengo kawoyela yomhlaba wonke ishintshashintsha kakhulu.

Izinketho zobuningi
Ukuthengiswa okubanzi kwempuphu yesoya kungayeka kancane kancane ukuwina, futhi ukuntengantenga okushiwoyo kukashukela kuzokhuphuka
Izinketho zokudla kwe-soya

Njengenkontileka enkulu ngoJanuwari, intengo yekusasa lokudla kukabhontshisi wesoya yaqhubeka nokuguquguquka ngoSepthemba 21, futhi intengo yansuku zonke ivalwe ku-2741 yuan / ton. Ivolumu yokuhweba nesimo sosuku bekuyi-910000 kanye ne-1880000, ngokulandelana.

Umthamo wokuhweba wezinketho zokudla kukabhontshisi wesoya uhlale uzinzile namuhla, nenani eliphelele lezandla ze-11300 (uhlangothi olulodwa, okufanayo ngezansi), kanye nesikhundla se-127700. NgoJanuwari, umthamo wenkontileka ubala u-73% wayo yonke inzuzo yenkontileka futhi isikhundla sibalwa. ngama-70% azo zonke izikhundla zenkontileka. Umkhawulo wesikhundla sohlangothi olulodwa lwenketho yokudla kukabhontshisi wesoya waxegiswa kusukela ku-300 kuya ku-2000, futhi umsebenzi wokuthengiselana emakethe ukhule kakhulu. Isilinganiso sevolumu yenketho yokudla kukabhontshisi wesoya kuvolumu yenketho yocingo sihanjiswe ku-0.52, futhi isilinganiso sendawo yenketho yokubeka endaweni yenketho yokushaya sagcinwa ku-0.63, futhi umuzwa wahlala ungathathi hlangothi futhi unethemba. Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe igcine uhla oluncane lwe-oscillation ngaphambi kosuku lukazwelonke.

Ngemuva kokukhishwa kwe-USDA yanyanga zonke yokuhlinzekwa kanye nombiko wesidingo, ukuguquguquka okushiwo kwaqhubeka nokwehla. NgoJanuwari, intengo yokuzivocavoca yenkontileka yenani eliphansi lenketho yokudla kukabhontshisi wesoya inyukele ku-2750, ukuguquguquka okucatshangelwayo kuqhubekile nokwehla kwafika ku-16.94%, futhi umehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okushiwo kanye nokuguquguquka komlando wezinsuku ezingama-60 kunwetshwe kwafinyelela ku-1.83%. Ngemuva kokukhishwa kombiko we-USDA wanyanga zonke wokunikezwa nokufunwa ngoSepthemba, isimo esisho ukuntengantenga sisuka ekuguquguqukeni komlando singase sifike esiphethweni, futhi intengo yediski kulindeleke ukuthi igcine ukuguquguquka okuncane, futhi ukuntengantenga okushiwo kusezingeni eliphansi kakhulu. . Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi isikhundla sezinketho ze-span-span ebanzi (m1801-c-2800 kanye ne-m1801-p-2600) singathengiswa isinyathelo ngesinyathelo ukuvimbela ubungozi bokuntengantenga okulethwe ngempelasonto. Inzuzo nokulahlekelwa ngokuthengisa izinketho ezibanzi ze-span yi-2 Yuan / share.
Izinketho zikashukela

Intengo yenkontileka eyinhloko kaJanuwari yekusasa likashukela omhlophe yehla ngoSepthemba 21, futhi intengo yansuku zonke ivaliwe ku-6135 yuan / ton. Umthamo wokuhweba wenkontileka kaJanuwari wawuyi-470000, futhi isikhundla sasingu-690000. Ivolumu yokuhweba kanye nesikhundla kwahlala kuzinzile.

Namuhla, inani lokuhweba eliphelele lezinketho zikashukela laliyi-6700 (i-unilateral, efanayo ngezansi), futhi isikhundla esiphelele sasingu-64700. Umkhawulo wesikhundla sohlangothi olulodwa lwenketho kashukela uphinde waxegiswa kusukela ku-200 kuya ku-2000, futhi umthamo wokuhweba kanye nesikhundla sokukhethwa kwanda. ngokuphawulekayo. Njengamanje, umthamo wenkontileka ngoJanuwari ubalelwa ku-74% kanti isikhundla sibalwa nama-57%. Isamba sanamuhla sohwebo sezinketho zikashukela PC_ Isilinganiso sithuthele ku-0.66, isikhundla PC_ Isilinganiso sahlala ku-0.90, futhi umsebenzi wezinketho zikashukela omhlophe wehla futhi_ Ikhono lesilinganiso lokuphendula imizwa lilinganiselwe.

Njengamanje, ukuguquguquka komlando kashukela wezinsuku ezingama-60 kungu-11.87%, futhi ukuguquguquka okushiwo kwezinketho zenani eliyisicaba ngoJanuwari sekufinyelele ku-12.41%. Njengamanje, umehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okushiwo kanye nokuguquguquka komlando wezinketho zenani eliyisicaba ngoJanuwari wehliselwe ku-0.54%. Ukuntengantenga kuyanda, futhi ingozi yephothifoliyo ye-put option iyakhula. Kuyaphakanyiswa ukubamba isikhundla senketho ye- put wide span (thengisa sr801p6000 kanye sr801c6400) ngokucophelela, futhi uvune inani lesikhathi lenketho. Namuhla, inzuzo nokulahlekelwa kwephothifoliyo ye-sell span ebanzi (sr801p6000 kanye ne-sr801c6400) ingu-4.5 yuan / isabelo.
TB

"Ukuncishiswa kwesikali" kuthulile, isibopho semali senyukele eChina

Ukubuyekezwa kwemakethe:
Ikusasa lebhondi yomgcinimafa liye lehla usuku lonke, iningi livaliwe, futhi umuzwa wemakethe ubungekho phezulu. Inkontileka eyinhloko yeminyaka emihlanu ye-tf1712 ivale ngo-0.07% ngaphansi ngo-97.450 yuan, ngevolumu yokuhweba eningi engu-9179, ngama-606 ngaphansi kosuku lwangaphambili lokuhweba, kanye nezikhundla ezingu-64582, ngo-164 ngaphansi kosuku lwangaphambili lokuhweba. Ingqikithi yenani lokuthengiselana kwezinkontileka ezintathu lalingu-9283, nokuncipha ngo-553, futhi isikhundla sezinkontileka ezingu-65486 sehle ngo-135. Inkontileka enkulu yeminyaka engu-10 engu-t1712 ivale ngo-0.15% yaya ku-94.97 yuan, nenzuzo engu-35365, ukwanda 7621, kanye nokuncipha 74 izandla esikhundleni 75017. Ingqikithi yenani lemisebenzi yezinkontileka ezintathu yayingama-35586, inyuke ngo-7704, futhi isikhundla sezinkontileka ezingama-76789 sehle ngo-24.

Ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe:
Isitatimende se-FOMC se-US Federal Reserve ngoSepthemba sabonisa ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwezinga lokungenzi lutho kancane kancane kwaqalwa ngo-Okthoba kulo nyaka, kuyilapho izinga lenzalo elilinganiselwe lihlala lingashintshile lisuka ku-1% laya ku-1.25%. Kulindeleke ukuthi izilinganiso zenzalo zizophinde ziphakanyiswe futhi ngo-2017, okuholela ekwesabeni okuqhubekayo kwezimakethe zokuqiniswa kwezimali esikhathini esifushane. Isivuno samabhondi kaMgcinimafa wase-US sikhuphuke kakhulu, futhi isivuno semakethe yebhondi yemali yamabhange asekhaya sithikamezekile ngenxa ye-conductivity, futhi nebanga lokukhuphuka lanwetshwa. Kulindeleke ukuthi iBhange Elikhulu laseChina lehlise izinga lokungathathi hlangothi kwebhange eliphakathi engxenyeni yesine, kodwa ngeke lithinteke ngokwenyuka kwezinga lebhange elikhulu laseChina.

Ithoni eyisisekelo yokugcina uzinzo isalokhu ifana neyangaphambili, futhi inhloko-dolobha iyancipha usuku nosuku: ibhange eliphakathi lenze imisebenzi yokuthenga kabusha eyi-40 billion ngezinsuku eziyi-7 kanye nezigidigidi ezingama-20 ngezinsuku ezingama-28 ngoLwesine, kanye nenzuzo yokuwina ibhidi. amanani abengu-2.45% no-2.75% ngokulandelanayo, abefana nesikhathi sokugcina. Ngalo lolo suku, kwaba nezigidigidi ezingama-60 zokuvuthwa kabusha kokuthenga kabusha, okwavala ngokuphelele ukuvuthwa kwezimali. Uthango lwemakethe evulekile yebhange elikhulu luvuthwa izinsuku ezimbili zilandelana, lugcine ithoni yokuzinza njengangaphambili. Izinga lenzalo ye-inter-bank pledge repo lehla, futhi izimali zehla kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, ngemva kokudamba kwengcindezi ye-liquidity, kwakungakabi bikho umdlandla wokuhweba emakethe, okubonisa ukuthi izimali zemakethe zazisaqaphile ngemva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kokuhlolwa kwekota ye-MPa.

Isidingo esinamandla samabhondi e-CDB, isidingo esibuthakathaka samabhondi asebhange okungenisa nokuthekelisa: isivuno sokuwina ibhidi samabhondi engeziwe enzalo egxilile yeminyaka emi-3 ye-China Development Bank ngu-4.1970%, ukuphindwa kwebhidi ngu-3.75, isivuno esiwinayo seminyaka engu-7 ehleliwe amabhondi engeziwe enzalo angu-4.3486%, futhi ukuphindaphinda kwebhidi ngu-4.03. Inzuzo ewinayo yebhidi yeminyaka emi-3 yebhondi engeziwe yenzalo egxilile ingu-4.2801%, ibhidi ephindaphindiwe ingu-2.26, ibhondi eyengeziwe enenzalo egxilile yeminyaka emi-5 ingu-4.3322%, ibhidi ephindaphindiwe ngu-2.21, ibhondi eyengeziwe yenzalo egxilile yeminyaka engu-10 ngu-4.3664%, bhida ngokuphindaphindiwe ibe 2.39. Imiphumela yokubhida emakethe eyinhloko ihlukene phakathi, futhi izinzuzo eziwinayo zamabhidi ezigaba ezimbili ze-China Development Bank ziphansi kunokulinganisa kwe-China National Development Bank, futhi isidingo sinamandla. Nokho, isivuno esiwinayo sebhidi samabhondi ezigaba ezintathu zebhange lokungenisa nokuthekelisa liphezulu kakhulu kunokulinganisa amabhondi ase-China, futhi isidingo sibuthakathaka.

Iziphakamiso zokusebenza:
I-US Federal Reserve's scale shrinking boots isetshenziswe ngokusemthethweni, futhi i-Federal Reserve ibonise isimo "sokuseduze nokhozi futhi kude neJuba". Nakuba isivuno samabhondi womgcinimafa wasekhaya siphezulu ngenxa yomphumela wesikweletu sase-US, ukungqubuzana okuyinhloko emakethe yamabhondi kusewukuba yimali engenayo. Ibhange elikhulu limise i-liquidity ezinzile futhi engathathi hlangothi ekuseni kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ithintwe isibikezelo sezomnotho saseShayina ngekota yesine, ibhange elimaphakathi cishe ngeke lilandele i-feed ukuze likhuphule amanani enzalo Isikhathi somthelela sengozi yokuqhuba yaphesheya kwezilwandle sinqunyelwe. Izinga lenzalo ye-inter-bank pledge repo lehla, futhi izimali zehla kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, ngemva kokudamba kwengcindezi ye-liquidity, kwakungakabi bikho umdlandla wokuhweba emakethe, okubonisa ukuthi izimali zemakethe zazisaqaphile ngemva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kokuhlolwa kwekota ye-MPa. Gcina ukuphela kwekota yesikweletu sangaphambi kwesikhathi kwesinqumo sokushaqeka esincane singashintshiwe.

Umshwana wokuzihlangula: ulwazi olukulo mbiko luqoqwe futhi luhlaziywe ikusasa le-Huatai, konke okuvela kudatha eshicilelwe. Ukuhlaziywa kolwazi noma imibono evezwe embikweni ayihlanganisi iziphakamiso zokutshala izimali. Abatshalizimali bayothwala isahlulelo esenziwe yimibono esembikweni kanye nokulahlekelwa okungenzeka.