Ushukela omhlophe
I-Raw Sugar ShockS Shocks Support Support
Ushukela obomvu uguqulwe kancane izolo, okufundzelwe okulindelwe ukwehla ekukhiqizweni koshukela waseBrazil. Inkontileka enkulu iphakanyiswe ngamasenti ayi-14.77 iphawundi futhi yawa kumasenti angu-14,54 ngephawundi. Intengo yokugcina yokuvala yenkontileka enkulu ye-rose 0.41% ukuvala ngamasenti ayi-14.76 ngephawundi. Isivuno sikashukela endaweni ekhiqizwayo yomoba eyinhloko eCentral naseningizimu yeBrazil izokwehla kuze kube ngeminyaka emithathu ephansi ngonyaka olandelayo. Ngenxa yokuntuleka kokubuyiselwa kwemali, isivuno somoba ngeyunithi ngayinye sizoncishiswa futhi ukukhiqizwa kwe-ethanol kuzokwandiswa. UKingman ulinganisela ukuthi ukukhiqizwa ushukela enkabeni naseningizimu yeBrazil ngonyaka we-2018-19 kungamathani ayizigidi ezingama-33.99 million. Bangaphezu kuka-90% wokukhiqizwa kweChina Tangtang enkabeni naseningizimu yeBrazil. Leli zinga lokukhiqizwa ushukela lisho ukwehla konyaka ngonyaka ka-2.1 amathani futhi kuzoba izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-31.22 ngonyaka we-2015-16. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izindaba zokushiywa kwendali yasembuso ye-Reserve auction zigaywe kancane kancane yimakethe. Yize intengo kashukela yawa futhi phakathi nosuku, yathola umhlaba wayo olahlekile ekugcineni kwantambama. Ebhekisa kokuhlangenwe nakho kwezinye izinhlobo, sikholwa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezinkampani ezigciniwe ngeke kuphazamise umkhuba wesikhathi saphakathi nendawo. Kwabatshalizimali abaphakathi nabafushane, bangalinda intengo ukuthi bazinze futhi bathenge i-1801 inkontileka eshibhile. Ngokuqondene nokutshalwa kwemali okukhethwa kukho, umhwebi webala angenza umsebenzi wephothifoliyo omboziwe wokuqalisa ukuthengisa inketho yokushayela izingcingo ezibucayi ngesisekelo sokubamba indawo ngesikhathi esifushane. Eminyakeni engu-1-2 elandelayo, ukusebenza kwephothifoliyo yezimbozo ezimboziwe kungasetshenziswa njengesithuthukisi sendawo engenayo. Okwamanje, kwabatshalizimali abanenani, bangathenga nezinketho zekholi ezibonakalayo ngezintengo zokuzivocavoca ezingama-6300 kuya ku-6400, lapho intengo kashukela inyusa ukwenza inketho ebonakalayo ibe yinani langempela, ungavala inketho yokuzivocavoca ephansi ekuqaleni kanye Qhubeka nokuthenga umjikelezo omusha wenketho yekholi (inketho yokushayela ngentengo yokuzivocavoca engu-6500 noma i-6600), bese kancane kancane ukhethe ithuba lokumisa inzuzo lapho intengo kashukela ifinyelela ngaphezulu kwama-6600 yuan / ton.
Ukotini kanye nekotoni intambo

Ikotini yase-US yaqhubeka nokuwa, ukubuyela emuva kwe-Puslow Couplot
I-Ice Cotton ikusasa laqhubeka nokuwa izolo njengokukhathazeka mayelana nomonakalo ongaba khona kukotini okubangelwa yisiphepho uMaria esehle futhi imakethe yalinda ukuvunwa ukotini. I-ICE1 ENDIP1 FEBRUARY COTCH FELL FELCE 1.05 Amasenti / Iphawundi liye ku-68.2 Amasenti ngephawundi ngalinye. Ngokwemininingwane yakamuva ye-USDA, ngesonto likaSepthemba 14, ngonyaka we-2017/18, i-US Cotton Net yenkontileka engamathani angama-63100, kanye nenyanga enyuswe amathani angama-47500, kanye nonyaka onyakeni wamathani ayi-14600; Ukuhanjiswa kwamathani angama-41100, inyanga ekhuphukeni ngamathani ayi-15700, ukukhuphuka konyaka ongamathani angama-3600, afaka ama-51% wevolumu yokuthumela kwelinye izwe), okungu-9% ophakeme kunonyaka emihlanu inani eliphakathi. Ohlangothini lwasekhaya, intambo ye-zhengmian nekotini yayingaphansi kwengcindezi, futhi inkontileka yokugcina yekotoni engu-1801 yavalwa okunikezwayo kwakungu-15415 yuan / ton, phansi ama-215 yuan / ton. Inkontileka ye-1801 ukotini inkontileka ivaliwe ku-23210 yuan / ton, phansi ngo-175 yuan / ton. Ngokuya ngokujikeleza ukotini wokubhuqeka, amathani angama-30024 alethwa ngosuku lwesine lwaleli sonto, futhi ivolumu yokuthenga langempela lalingamathani angama-29460, ngesilinganiso sokuthenga esingu-98.12%. Intengo ephakathi yokuthenga eyehliswe ngo-124 yuan / ton kuya ku-14800 yuan / ton. NgoSepthemba 22, ivolumu yokujikeleza okuhleliwe yayingamathani angama-26800, kufaka phakathi amathani angama-19400 kakotini we-Xinjiang. Amanani e-Spot aqhutshwa aqinile futhi akhule kancane, nge-CC inkomba engu-3128B yokuhweba ngo-15974 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton kusuka ngosuku lokuhweba lwangaphambilini. Inkomba yentengo yama-yorns ahlanganisiwe angama-32 ibingu-23400 yuan / ithoni nokuthi ama-yorns ahlanganisiwe angu-26900 yuan / ton. Egameni, ukotini waseMelika waqhubeka nokuwa, futhi izimbali ezintsha zasekhaya zafakwa kuhlu kancane kancane. Ukotini uZheng bathintwe yilokhu esikhathini esifushane futhi bahlala beshintshana esikhathini esiphakathi nangesikhathi sekwephuzile. Abatshalizimali bangathenga kancane kancane kuma-bargain ngemuva kokuthi inhlanhla kakotini yaseMelika iyagaywa. Ngasikhathi sinye, indawo yakamuva yekotoni yekotoni yaqinisa kancane kancane, singalinda intambo yekotini ukuthi isebenze, kodwa futhi futhi kancane kancane ithenge eshipini.
Isidlo sasebhontshisi

Ukusebenza okunamandla kokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-USOYBEAN
Ama-Sbot Soyaans akhuphuka kancane izolo, avale ngamasenti angu-970.6 amasenti / pu, kepha awonke asathuthukisi ebhokisini lebhokisi. Umbiko wezentengiso wamasonto onke wawunethemba. Evikini lakamuva, umthamo wokuthengisa owethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kabhontshisi wase-US wawungamathani angama-2338000, aphezulu kakhulu kunesibikezeli semakethe samathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,2-1,5. Ngaleso sikhathi, u-USDA wamemezela ukuthi abathengisi abazimele bathengisa amathani angama-132000 ama-soya eChina. Njengamanje, imakethe idlala umdlalo phakathi kwesivuno esiphezulu nesidingo esinamandla. Ngokusuka ngeSonto eledlule, izinga lokuvuna lalingu-4%, futhi isilinganiso esihle kakhulu futhi esihle sasingu-1% kuye ku-59% ngaphansi kwesonto eledlule. Umphumela omubi wesivuno esikhulu kulindeleke, futhi ukufunwa okuqinile okuqhubekayo kuzosekela intengo. Uma kuqhathaniswa nokwedlule, sinethemba elikhulu mayelana nemakethe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokufika kokukhiqizwa kwe-US, ukugxila kamuva kuzoshintsha kancane kancane ekutshaleni nasekukhuleni, kanye nengqikithi yokuqagela kuzokhula. Kwakunoshintsho oluncane ohlangothini lwasekhaya. Amasheya e-Soybean emachwebeni nasemafektri kawoyela awela ngesonto eledlule, kepha base besezingeni eliphakeme ngesikhathi esifanayo somlando. Ngesonto eledlule, isilinganiso sokuqalisa isitshalo samafutha sikhuphuke saya ku-58.72%, kanye nevolumu yokuhweba yansuku zonke yokudla kwe-soybean kukhuphuke kusuka kumathani ayi-11000 ngeviki edlule kuya kumathani ayi-162000. Ukusungulwa kwesidlo sakude sika-soya esitshalo samafutha sehle amasonto ayisithupha alandelanayo ngaphambili, kepha kutholakale kancane ngesonto eledlule, kukhuphuka ngamathani angama-824900 kuya ku-Septhemba 17. Isitshalo samafutha kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokusebenza esigabeni esiphakeme kuleli sonto inzuzo enkulu kanye nokulungiselela ngaphambi kosuku lukazwelonke. Kuleli sonto, umthamo wokuthengiselana nokulethwa endaweni ukhule kakhulu. Izolo, umthamo wokuthenga we-soybean isidlo saba ngamathani angama-303200, inani lokuthenga eliphakathi lalingu-2819 (28), futhi ivolumu yokulethwa lalingamathani angama-79400. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukudla kwe-soybean kuzoqhubeka nokulandela isoya lase-US ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi isisekelo sizohlala sizinzile ezingeni lamanje lesikhathi sokuba
Amafutha e-Soybean Amafutha

Ukulungiswa Kwezimpahla Ezingaphansi Kwe-Oyili
Abakwa-US Soya ngokuvamile bashintshashintsha futhi bavuke kancane izolo, ngokuya ngesidingo esinamandla sokuthumela ngaphandle sebhontshisi sase-US. Ngemuva kwesikhashana esifushane sokulungiswa kwemakethe, ukufunwa okuqinile kwe-US kuzokhawulela ukwanda ekugcineni kokusungula kweshidi elilinganiselwe kanye ne-warehouse ukusebenzisa isilinganiso, futhi intengo ingahlala ibuthakathaka kuze kube yilapho isivuno esiphansi sonyaka. UMa Pan wawa izolo. Ukukhishwa ngoSepthemba, kufaka phakathi isikhathi esizayo, kulindeleke ukuthi kululame ngokushesha. Ukusuka ku-1 kuye ku-15 kweyesi-9, ukuthekelisa kwe-MA Palm kukhuphuke ngenyanga engama-20 ngenyanga, kanye nevolumu yokuthumela eNdiya nokubumbana kwehle. Lo mjikelezo wokunyuka kukaMalay uphakeme kakhulu. Lapho nje ukuphuma kokulungiselela okulandelayo, i-MA PAN izoba nokulungiswa okukhulu. Izisekelo zasekhaya azikashintshi kakhulu. I-yokusungula yamafutha esundu amathani angama-360000, futhi uwoyela we-soybean unamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,37. Ukulungiswa kwesitoko kwemikhosi kungenile esiteji esizayo, futhi ivolumu yokuthenga incipha kancane kancane. Esikhathini esizayo, ukufika kwamafutha esundu eHong Kong kuyanda kancane kancane, futhi ukucindezela kuvela kancane kancane. Ikusasa lezimpahla liyaqhubeka nokuwa izolo, isimo esifushane saqhubeka, futhi uwoyela walandela ubuthakathaka. Ukusebenza, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi ulinde futhi ubone umoya wemakethe. Ngemuva kwengozi idedelwa ngokuphelele, singacabanga ngokungenela kwamafutha zemifino ngezisekelo eziqinile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isisekelo samafutha esundu sancipha ngemuva kokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo, futhi inani elilinganayo lamafutha kabhontshisi lalisezingeni eliphakeme. Esikhathini esizayo, isilinganiso sokuvuselela isivuno sasishesha, futhi iMakan nayo ibisezinhlelweni zokulungiswa. Ngokuya nge-arbitrage, ukungenelela okufika ngesikhathi ekusakazekeni kwentengo ye-Bean Palm noma Palm Palm Palm.
Ummbila kanye nesitashi

Amanani wekusasa abukeze kancane
Intengo yendawo yasekhaya ye-Corn Corn yayizinzile futhi yawa, phakathi kwayo intengo yokuthenga yamabhizinisi ajulile e-Corn China yaqhubeka nokuwa, ngenkathi ezinye izifunda zihlala ziqinile; Intengo yeSpoki yesitashi yayizinzile ngokuvamile, futhi abanye abakhiqizi banciphisa izingcaphuno zabo ngo-20-30 yuan / ton. Mayelana nezindaba zemakethe, ukusungulwa kwesitashi kwamabhizinisi ajulile ajulile + amachweba agxile eTiaxia Granary ekulandeleleni kukhuphuke kumathani angama-176900 ukusuka kumathani angama-161700 ngeledlule; NgoSepthemba 21, uhlelo lwemalimboleko lwemalimboleko olungaphansi kanye nokuthengisa amathani okugcina ama-48970 okugcina okwesikhashana ummbila ngo-2013, futhi ivolumu yokuthenga langempela lalingamathani angama-48953, ngentengo ephakathi yokuthenga engu-1335 yuan; Uhlelo lokuthengisa olunenkontileka lweChina National Rain Storance Company Limited luhlelelwe ukuhweba amathani okugcina okwesikhashana ku-2014, ngentengo yokuthenga yangempela yamathani angama-1468 yuan atholakala ekuhwebeni kokuqala futhi kukhuphuke kancane ekugcineni. Ngibheke phambili esigabeni sakamuva, ngicabanga ngamanani aphezulu entengo yokukhiqiza kanye nezindawo zokuthengisa ezihambelana nentengo yesikhathi esikude yommbila, ayilungele ukufunwa kwangempela kanye nokuphindaphindeka kommbila omusha. Ngakho-ke, sigcina isahlulelo sokwahlulela; Ngokuqondene nesitashi, kucatshangelwa umthelela wokuhlolwa kokuvikelwa kwemvelo noma ubuthakathaka, kuzoba namandla amasha okukhiqiza ngaphambi nangemva kokufakwa kwalolo luhlu lwamakhosi amasha esigabeni esizayo. Silindele ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwesikhathi eside kanye nesidingo kuzothambekela ukuthuthuka. Kuhlanganiswe nokulindela kwentengo ye-corn kanye nenqubomgomo engaba khona yoxhaso lokucubungula okujulile, sikholwa nokuthi intengo yesikhathi esizayo ye-Starch nayo iyabhebhetheka. Kulokhu, siphakamisa ukuthi abatshalizimali bangaqhubeka nokubamba ishidi elingenalutho lommbila / isitashi noma intengo yommbila wesitashi ukusabalala iphothifoliyo yakwa-Agasti ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari ekuqaleni, futhi uthathe ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti njengokulahleka kokuhle.
iqanda

Amanani e-Spot ayaqhubeka nokuwa
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-zhihua, intengo yamaqanda ezweni lonke yaqhubeka nokuwa, ngentengo ephakathi ezindaweni eziphambili ezikhiqiza izindawo eziyinhloko eziwela ngo-0,13 yuan ezindaweni ezijwayelekile eziwela ngo-0,13. Ukuqapha ukuhweba kukhombisa ukuthi abathengisi kulula ukuthola izimpahla futhi baphuze ukuhambisa izimpahla. Isimo sokuhweba jikelele sithuthukiswa kancane uma siqhathaniswa nosuku olwedlule. Ukusungula kwabahwebi kuphansi, futhi kuyaqhubeka ukukhuphuka kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nosuku lwangaphambilini. Ukulindela kwabahwebi babuthakathaka, ikakhulukazi e-East China naseSouthwest China Beary okulindelekile kuqinile. Intengo yamaqanda yaqhubeka yehla ekuseni, yaphindeka kabusha kancane kancane ntambama, futhi yavalwa kakhulu. Ngokuya ngentengo yokuvala, inkontileka ngoJanuwari wakhuphuka ngo-95 yuan, inkontileka ngaphakathi ingahle yanda ngo-45 yuan, kanti inkontileka ngoSepthemba yayicishe ibefanele. Kusukela ekuhlaziyweni kwemakethe, siyabona ukuthi intengo yamaqanda iqhubeke nokuwa maduze nje njengoba kuhlelwe, futhi ukwehla kwentengo yesikhathi esizayo kungaphansi kwentengo yebala, futhi isaphulelo sentengo sangaphambili Ku-Premium, okubonisa ukuthi ukulindela kwemakethe sekushintshile, okungukuthi, kusukela ekulinganeni okubonisa ithonsi le-Spot Price Point ephakeme esikhathini esiseduze noMkhosi WaseSpy esikhathini esizayo. Ngokombono wokusebenza kwemakethe, imakethe kungenzeka kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngu-4000 njengendawo engezansi yentengo kaJanuwari. Kulokhu, kunconywa ukuthi abatshalizimali balinde futhi babone.
Ingulube ebukhoma

Qhubeka Uwa
Ngokwemininingwane ye-Zhuyi.com, inani elijwayelekile lezingulube ezibukhoma lalingu-14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg ngaphansi kosuku lwangaphambilini. Intengo yezingulube yaqhubeka nokuwa ngaphandle kwengxoxo. Sithole izindaba namhlanje ekuseni ukuthi intengo yokuthenga yamabhizinisi ahlabayo yehla ngo-0,1 yuan / kg. Intengo enyakatho-mpumalanga yeChina yephule ngo-7, kanti intengo eyinhloko ingu-14 yuan / kg. Intengo yezingulube e-East China yehle, futhi intengo yezingulube kwezinye izifunda ngaphandle kokuthi uShandong wayesengaphezulu kwe-14.5 yuan / kg. UHenan eCentral China wahola ukwehla, phansi 0.15 yuan / kg. La machibi amabili aqinile okwesikhashana, futhi intengo ebaluleke kakhulu ingu-14.3 yuan / kg. ENingizimu China, intengo yawela ngo-0,1 yuan / kg, intengo ebaluleke kakhulu yeGuangdong naseGuangxi yayingu-14.5 Yuan / kg, futhi uHainan wayengu-14 yuan / kg. Iningizimu-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-0,1 yuan / kg, uSichuan neChongqing 15.1 yuan / kg. Inganekwane yegolide, isiliva neshumi kufana nalokhu. Akukho ukusekelwa okuhle ngentengo yesikhathi esifushane. Kuyiqiniso lokuthi kukhona ukwanda kokuthengisa. Ukuhlatshwa amabhizinisi asebenzise lesi simo futhi ukwanda akusobala. Kulindelwe ukuthi intengo yezingulube izoqhubeka nokuwa.
Ukwenza amandla
Steam Coal

I-Port Spot Deadlock, Inani Eliphezulu Lekhompiyutha
Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezindaba ezinjengomkhathi omubi ophelele kanye nesiqinisekiso sokuhlinzekwa kwenqubomgomo esekelwe ebuyiselweni izolo, nenkontileka enkulu yokuvala ngokushesha, kanye nomehluko wentengo phakathi kuka-16.4. Mayelana ne-Spot Market, ethintekile yi-19 National Commist yePhathi leChina laseChina, ezinye izimayini ezivulekile eShaanxi naseShanxi ziyekile ukukhiqizwa nokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa. Yize imikhawulo ekuqalisweni kwamadivaysi aqhutshwa iphakanyiswe e-Interner Mongolia, ukulethwa kwezindawo ukukhiqiza kuqinile, futhi intengo yamalahle ePitheyade iyaqhubeka nokuvuka. Ngokuya kwamachweba, intengo yamalahle ethekwini isesezingeni eliphakeme. Ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme kanye nokucatshangelwa kwezingozi zemakethe zesikhathi eside, abathengisi abanasifiso sokulayisha izimpahla, kanye nezinga lokwamukela kwezinkampani ezansi komfula zentengo ephakeme yamanje akuphezulu. I-Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal Steam Coal + 0-702 Yuan / Ton.

Ezindabeni, ikhomishini yezokuthuthukiswa kweNational New and Reform Remoform ikhiphe isaziso ekuqinisekiseni ukuthuthwa kwamalahle, ugesi, uwoyela kanye negesi namadolobha afanelekile kufanele kuqinise ukuqapha okunamandla nokuhlaziywa kokukhiqizwa kwamalahle futhi Isidingo sokuhamba, thola okufika ngesikhathi futhi ukuxhumanisa ukuxazulula izinkinga ezivelele ekuhlinzekweni, futhi zilwele ukuqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa kwamalahle ezizinzile ngaphambi nangemva kwengqungquthela yeNational National Commist yaseChina.

Ukusungula amachweba asenyakatho kubuye kwakhiwe kabusha, ngomthamo ojwayelekile wokuthumela wansuku zonke, ukudluliswa kwesitimela nsuku zonke, ukusungulwa kwamathani angama-8-5,62, okusungula amathani ama-cafeidian angu-30 kuya ku-3.17 million amathani, futhi Ukusungula kwe-Jingtang Port ye-SDIC + 4 kuya ku-1.08 million amathani.

Izolo, ukusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kwezitshalo zamandla kuphindeka kabusha. Amaqembu ayisithupha amakhulu asogwini adla amathani amalahle angama-730000 amalahle, anesilinganiso samathani ayizigidi eziyi-9.83 samalahle esitokweni nezinsuku eziyi-13.5 zesitoreji samalahle.

I-China's Coastal Coal Freight Index Index 0.01% kuya ku-1172 izolo
Kuwo wonke, imihlangano ebalulekile kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya ku-Okthoba kanye nokuvikelwa kwezemvelo / ukuhlola kwezindawo zokukhiqiza kungaqhubeka nokuvimbela ukukhishwa kokuhlinzekwa. Yize ukusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kwezitshalo zamandla ezansi kwehle, kusezingeni eliphakeme, futhi ukwesekwa kwendawo kuqinile. Ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo, inkontileka engu-01 ihambelana nenkathi ephezulu yokushisa, kepha kunengcindezi yokufaka esikhundleni sokubuyiselwa ngesikhathi, futhi ingcindezi ephezulu iyavela. Kufanele sinake isimo semakethe ezungezile, izinga lokuconsa kokusetshenziswa kwansuku zonke kanye nokukhishwa komthamo wokukhiqiza athuthukile.
Uhlobo lwenkemba

Ukukhiqizwa kwe-Polyester kanye nokumaketha ngokujwayelekile, ukusebenza okubuthakathaka kwe-PTA
Izolo, umkhathi ophelele wezimpahla wawungemuhle, i-PTA yayibuthakathaka, futhi inkontileka eyinhloko engu-01 ivaliwe ekuhwebeni ebusuku, futhi umehluko wentengo phakathi kuka-12. Ukuthengiselana kwemakethe kunevolumu enkulu, abahlinzeki abasemakethe ikakhulukazi Izimpahla zeSpot thenga, ezinye amafektri e-polyester zithole ama-oda, iMakethe iyaqhubeka ukuncipha. Kungakapheli usuku, indawo eyinhloko kanye nenkontileka engu-01 kuxoxiswane ngayo isisekelo sokuthengiselana ngesaphulelo 20-35, irisidi le-Warehouse kanye nokunikezwa kwenkontileka engu-01 kwisaphulelo 30; Emini, kwathathwa ama-5185-5-5275, kwalethwa ama-5263-5281 kuthengiselana, kwathi irisidi yokugcina izimpahla engama-5239 lalithengiswa.

Izolo, i-PX Quotation yawela emuva, kanti i-CFR inikelwe ku-847 USD / T (3) ubusuku bonke e-Asia, futhi imali yokucubungula ibingacishe ibe ngu-850. Px ibike u-840 USD / T ngoNovemba. Ngokuzayo, i-PX yasekhaya ingahle ibe yisitokhwe, kepha akulindelekile ukuthi ingaphandle kwesitoko.

Ngokuya ngesitshalo se-PTA, isikhathi sokuvula seqoqo lesitshalo se-PTA esiphumayo sonyaka samathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5 esifundazweni saseJiangsu sinwetshiwe cishe izinsuku ezi-5; Umkhumbi wokuqala we-PX webhizinisi le-PTA eHuabin Now.1 Umugqa wokukhiqiza usufikile eHong Kong muva nje, kepha izindaba zethangi lokugcina azikaze zisetshenziswe ngokuphelele, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ziqale ngoNovemba; Ibhizinisi le-PTA esiFundazweni saseFujian selisayine isivumelwano sokwakha kabusha, futhi inqubo yokuqalisa ingasheshiswa ngaleso sikhathi, futhi uhlelo lokuqala luzoqala kabusha ukuqala kwengxenye ye-COUPTER YOKWENZA.

Ohlangothini oluphansi, ukukhiqizwa okuphelele kanye nokuthengiswa kweJiangsu kanye noZhejiang Polyester Yarn bebesekujwayelekile izolo, ngokwesilinganiso kulinganiselwa ku-60-70% ngabo-3: 30 PM ngabo-3: 30 PM; Ukuthengiswa kwe-Direct Spinning Pelyester bekungamaphakathi, kanti phansi komfula kudinga ukuphindisela, iningi lokukhiqizwa kanye nokuthengisa kwakungaphezu kwama-50-80%.

Sekukonke, ukulungiswa kwezitshalo ze-PTA kusuka ngoSepthemba kuya ku-Okthoba, kuhlangene ne-polyester low Inventory kanye nomthwalo ophakeme, ukutholakala kwesikhathi sesikhashana kanye nesakhiwo sesifundela sisasekelwa. Kodwa-ke, kwinkontileka yesikhathi esizayo 01, ukusekelwa kwe-PX ngesihlango sezindleko kwabuthakathaka kwikota yesine. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi kusuka ngoNovemba kuya ku-December of amadivaysi ayo amasha namadala, bekunzima ukugcina izindleko eziphezulu zokucubungula, futhi ingcindezi yokushayela ucingo ye-PTA yaqhubeka. Kufanele sinake umkhathi ophelele wemakethe yezimpahla, ukukhiqizwa kwe-polyester okuphansi kanye nokuthengisa nezinguquko zokusungula kanye namanani kawoyela aphesheya.
I-Tianjiao

I-Shanghai Rubber 1801 ingazinza ngesikhathi esifushane
Ngokuqondene nokwehla kwakamuva (1) Intengo ehlelwe kahle, imininingwane evela ku-Agasti yayiphansi kunokulindelwa okude, iqinisekisa ukufunwa okubuthakathaka kwezikhundla ezimfushane (2) ipuleti eliseceleni elibuthakathaka. . 2. Ngesikhathi esifushane, ngicabanga ukuthi ama-14500-15000 azohlala futhi abuye abuyele ukuze abone wonke umkhiqizo wezimboni futhi omnyama.

Pe?

Ngaphambi komkhosi, isidingo sokulungiselela kwezimpahla sisadinga ukukhishwa, futhi ukulengiswa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kwangaphandle kwe-hanged kuyakhula & ukunwebeka kwe-macro kanye ne-commosphere kubuthakathaka, futhi kusenokucindezela esikhathini esifushane

NgoSepthemba 21, Intengo ye-LLD EX Factory Factory of SINopec eNyakatho China, e-East China, eCentral China, e-Easty China naseNtshonalanga China yancishiswa ngu-50-200 yuan Intengo eNyakatho China yabuya ku-9350 yuan / ton (imboni yamakhemikhali yamalahle). Njengamanje, i-L18001 litre yamanzi eNyakatho China kwakuthengiswa ku-170 Yuan / T. Intengo yefektri yakudala yezitshalo zase-petrochemical yancishiswa endaweni enkulu. Kwakunabadayisi abaningi ukuthi bathumele izimpahla ngentengo yemakethe engenele, futhi inhloso yokwehla komfula bekuyinto ejwayelekile, kepha isidingo sezimpahla ezingezona eziphansi sikhuphukile, futhi ingcindezi esangweni isalokhu; Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngoSepthemba 20, intengo ye-CFR FAR East East ephelele ilingana ne-RMB 9847 / T, imakethe yangaphandle elenga ibheke phansi ku-327 yuan / t, intengo yebala isebheke phansi kuya ku-497 yuan / T. amandla Ukusekelwa kwangaphandle kuzoqhubeka nokuthinta ivolumu yokungenisa ngo-Okthoba; Ngokwemibhalo yentengo yemikhiqizo ehlobene, umehluko wentengo phakathi kwe-HD-Lld ne-LD-LLD ngu-750 yuan / t kanye ne-650 yuan / try ngokulandelana, kanye nemikhiqizo ehlobene nengcindezi yobuso Amathuba asaphansi. Sekukonke, ngokombono wokusakazeka kwamanani, ukusekelwa okungenzeka kwangaphandle kwezimakethe zangaphandle kuqinisiwe, ingcindezi emikhiqizweni ehlobene iyaqhubeka nokudambisa, futhi ingcindezi ohlangothini lwesimo ihlehlise kancane kancane ngokuwa kwamanani. Yize ukuwa okubukhali kumanani aphumuzayo kuyaqhubeka nokunqanda isidingo sesikhashana ngenxa yokwehliswa kwesilinganiso se-Federal Reserve's Scale kanye nokuncipha kwesimo sezulu esithengiswayo sonke, isidingo sezimpahla ezilungele amaholide kungenzeka zikhishwe.

Ngokombono wokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa, yokusungula kukaPetochina kwaqhubeka ukuwa cishe amathani angama-700000 izolo, futhi ama-petrochemicals aqhubeka nokuthengisa inzuzo yokusungula ngaphambi komkhosi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhishwa okumaphakathi kwendawo yokuhlanganisa yokuqothula yokuqothula, okuhambisana nokuncipha kwakamuva kwe-macro kanye ne-commodity atmosphere, ukukhulisa ingcindezi yesikhashana. Kodwa-ke, le miphumela emibi izogaywa kancane kancane ngokwehla kwentengo yokuqala. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunesidingo sokulungiselela kwezimpahla ngaphambi komkhosi ophansi esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ngemuva kokuzinzisa, amathuba azovela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuguqulwa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuzokwandiswa, ingcindezi emikhiqizweni engeyona eyejwayelekile izokhululwa, futhi ingcindezi yendawo izogaywa kancane yimakethe, futhi kusekusekhona lapho isidingo sizophinda singene isikhathi esizayo (sibheke phambi komkhosi). Ngakho-ke, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi kufanele silinde ithuba lokulindela kwecala lokugcina indawo yokuhlala ngaphambi komkhosi futhi ubambe izikhundla ezimfushane ngokucophelela ekuqaleni. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi uhla lwamanani entengo e-L18001 aphambili angama-9450-9650 yuan / Ton.

I-PP?

Isimo se-Macro ne-Commodity sehlisa amandla, ukusekelwa kokuhlukaniswa kwensiza nokusekelwa kwentengo, ukufunwa kwesitoko, ukukhetha okuqaphelayo kwe-PP

NgoSepthemba 21, amanani entengo efektri e-ex yase-SinoPopec North China, iSouth China nasePetrochina South China ancishiswe yi-yuan / ton e-East China yaqhubeka nokuwa kuma-8500 yuan / ton, ukukhuphuka kwentengo ye-PP1801 e-East China Spot ishiswe ku-110 yuan / t, intengo yesikhathi esizayo yayingaphansi kwengcindezi, ukukhiqizwa kwentengo okuphansi kudingeke ukuthengile, umthombo wamanani aphansi wawudinga ukuthengiwe, futhi ingcindezi yendawo idluliselwe phansi- Intengo yokuphela yaqhubeka nokuphinda iye ku-8100 yuan / ton, intengo yokusekela powder yayingacishe ibe ngu-8800 yuan / ithoni, ngakho-ke i-powder yayingaboniswa kancane kancane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngoSepthemba 20, intengo ye-CFR FAR East end-East end yangaphandle ye-RMB yaphonswa kancane ku-9233 yuan / ton, i-PP1801 yangenelwa ku-623 yuan / isitoko samanje savunyelwa ku-733 yuan / ton. Iwindi lokuthumela ngaphandle livuliwe, futhi ukwesekwa kwangaphandle kuyaqhubeka nokuqinisa. Ngokombono wentengo esakazeka, isisekelo sihlala siphansi, ukulethwa kwezimpahla kuqiniswe, futhi indawo ibuyele emuva, okucindezela imakethe. Esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, abathengisi baphinde bandisa imizamo yabo yokuthumela, futhi ingcindezi yesikhashana iye yanda. Kodwa-ke, ngokulungiswa kwentengo, ingcindezi ye-aftermarket ingancishiswa kancane kancane, futhi ukuzimisela okuphansi kokwamukela izimpahla kuye kwaphindeka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, zombili ipaneli nendawo sebeqhubekile nokulenga phansi emakethe yangaphandle yi-margin enkulu, futhi iphaneli libuye liseduze nempuphu esikhundleni sokusekelwa, isenzo sonke singaba buthaka, futhi isenzo sokuhlukana sentengo siyaqiniswa futhi .

Ngokombono wokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa, izinga lokugcina lesitshalo se-PP lizinzile okwesikhashana ku-14.55% kanti isilinganiso sokudweba sizinze okwesikhashana kube ngu-28.23% izolo. Kodwa-ke, iShenhua Baotou, iShijiazhuang Refinery kanye ne-Haiwei Petrochemical Co, Ltd. Banezinhlelo zokuqala kabusha esikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuzokhishwa umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza ukhishwe kancane kancane (i-Ningmei isigaba seii, i-yuntianua (600096, ngaphezu kwalokho, iSisekelo sempahla ehleliwe esisenkontizelweni engu-01 iye kancane kancane yaya kule ndawo. Noma kunjalo, Le ngxenye yengcindezi igaywe ngokuwa kwentengo. Muva nje, isidingo sokushiswa kwepulasitiki sesikhuphuke esingeni eliphansi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunesidingo sokulungiswa kwezimpahla ngaphambili Umkhosi we-11. Njengamanje, i-PP isazoba ingcindezi ohlangothini lwesimo qhubeka nokugaya umdlalo phakathi kwesidingo nesikhashana, ngakho-ke idiski yesikhathi esifushane noma ukugxila ekusekelweni kokubuyiselwa kwesidingo , kwangaphakathi nangaphandle okuphezulu kwe-powder kuthatha indawo yokungena esikhundleni se-powder. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi uhla lwamanani entengo yanamuhla lwe-PP180-8650 yuan / ton.
IMetanol

Meg wawell, Olefif Spot Low & Isaphulelo Spot, Production Area ngokuqinile, i-methanol cutious

I-Spot: NgoSepthemba 21, intengo ye-methanol yasukuma yawa komunye nomunye, kwawo, inani eliphansi leTaicang lalingu-yuicang, uHenan, uHebei, i-Southwester China 26770 (- 200), 2700 (- 200), 2720 (- 260), 2520 (- 500 Freight) kanye 2750 (- 180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 (180 I-3020 yuan / ithoni, kanye newindows yokukhiqiza kanye nokuthengisa i-armbingrage iwindi lavalwa ngokuphelele ama-01 ama-taicang aqhubeka nokulenga ebheke phezulu kuya ku-32 yuan / ton. Ukucabanga ngokuvalwa okuqhubekayo kwefasitela lokukhiqizwa nokumaketha, lokhu ngokungangabazeki kusekelwa ngokungaqondile kwePort Spot ne-Disk;

Umehluko wangaphakathi nangaphandle wentengo T, kanye nokusekelwa kwemakethe yangaphandle yendawo yasekhaya ne-disk kwaqiniswa.

Izindleko: Intengo yamalahle ama-Ordos (600295, Ukuxilongwa Iyunithi) kanye namalahle angama-5500 Dakakou eJandong esifundazweni saseShandong kwakungu-391 no-640 yuan / amathani wephaneli kwakungu-2221 no-2344 yuan / ton. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izindleko ze-methanol ze-Sichuan ChongQing Gas Head zazingu-1830 yuan / ithoni e-East China, nokuthi i-Coke Oven Gas eNyakatho China yayingama-mpumalanga we-yuan / ithoni e-East China / TONT e-East China;

Isidingo Esivelayo: Ngokuya ngemali yokucubungula idiski, i-PP + Meg yawela futhi kuya ku-2437 yuan / ton, isesezingeni eliphakeme. Kodwa-ke, idiski kanye nezindleko zokusebenza kwendawo ye-PP-3 * MA zawela futhi ku-570 no-310 yuan / T. izolo, idiski ye-meg yawa kabili, ukwandisa ingcindezi engeniswe yi-PP ngokufihla;

Sekukonke, amanani empumu aqhubeka nokuwa phansi izolo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuncishiswa kwe-meg kanye ne-Federal Reserve, okuholela ekuthambekeni okuphezulu kwehla esimweni esithengiswayo esiphelele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-PP isabhekene nengcindezi yokukhiqizwa okusha kokukhiqizwa, ukuqalisa kabusha kwensiza kanye nokuphuma kwe-disk solidvol ukuphuma esikhathini esifushane. Kodwa-ke, kunezimpawu zokunciphisa kancane kancane kwengcindezi eyisisekelo, futhi intengo yendawo iseqinile, ukunwebeka kwe-Disk embozwe indawo, kanye nokupaka okuhleliwe kwamadivayisi we-Brunei kanye nokusekelwa okuhle ngemuva kwemibhalo yokuphatha yasemanzini, I-yokusungula yamachweba e-East China abuye awela ezingeni eliphakeme kuleli sonto. Kuyaqapha ukuba mfushane esikhathini esifushane, futhi akunconywa ukujaha amafushane. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi uhla lwentengo yansuku zonke ye-MA801 lungu-2680-2750 yuan / Ton.
uwoyela ongahluziwe

Umhlangano wokugxila wemakethe OPEC JMMC

Izindaba Zemakethe Nemininingwane Ebalulekile

Ikusasa le-WTI Crude uwoyela ikusasa lavalwa phansi ku- $ 0,14, noma ngo-0.28%, kuya ku- $ 50.55 / Barrel. I-Brent's Novemba kaNovemba i-Oil Futures Rose $ 0.14, noma ngo-0.25%, kuya ku- $ 56.43 / Barrel. I-Nymex kaJehova kaphethiloli ikusasa elivaliwe ku- $ 1.6438 / Gallon. I-Nymex ngo-Okthoba Ukushisa uwoyela Ikusasa ivaliwe ngo- $ 1.8153 / Gallon.

2. Kubikwa ukuthi umhlangano wokuqondisa ukuncipha kokukhiqiza kulindeleke ukuthi aqhutshwe eVienna ngo-4: 00 PM Beijing Time ngoLwesihlanu, aphathwe yi-Kuwait futhi ahanjelwe yizikhulu ezivela eVenezuela, e-Algeria, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe. Umhlangano uzoxoxa ngezinkinga ezinjengokwengeza isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kanye nokuqapha ukuthekelisa ukubheka izinga lokuqalisa ukwehliswa kokwehliswa, kubikwe ama-Reuters. Kodwa-ke, abamele i-OPEC bathi njengamanje, wonke amazwe awafinyeleli ekunikezelweni kwesivumelwano sokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza, futhi konke kusamele kuxoxwe ngakho.

UNgqongqoshe Wezamandla WaseRussia: Amazwe we-OPEC nama-non aPec azoxoxa ngodaba lomthetho wokuthunyelwa kwamafutha e-crude emhlanganweni weVienna. Ngokusho kwezindaba zemakethe, iKomidi le-OPEC technical liphakamise ukuthi izikhonzi zamazwe akhiqiza uwoyela kufanele zigadwe ukuthunyelwa kwamafutha e-crude njengesengezo esivumelwaneni sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa.

I-4. IGolden Sachs: Kulindelwe ukuthi izinkulumo ze-OPEC zingeke zandise isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kawoyela, kepha kusenesikhathi kakhulu ukwenza isiphetho. Kukholakala ukuthi iKomidi Lokwenziwa Kwemisebenzi Yokubhekiswa Kombhalo Wokukhiqiza Amafutha we-Opec ngeke ahlongoze ukwelula isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kuleli sonto. Izisekelo eziqinile zamanje zisekela ukubekezelela kukaGoldman kokulindela kwalo ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kwamafutha kuzokhuphuka ku- $ 58 / umgqomo ngasekupheleni konyaka.

I-TankerTracker: Ama-Opec Crude Oil Export kulindeleke ukuthi anciphe ngo-140000 B / D kuya ku-23.82 million b / d kusukela ngo-Okthoba 7.

L. Investment Logic

Muva nje, imakethe igxile emhlanganweni we-JMMC wanyangazonke we-OPEC, kanye nezinkinga ezimbalwa ezenziwa yimakethe ukunakwa okwengeziwe ukuthi: 1. Ukuthi ngabe isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqiza sizonwetshwa; 2. Ungakuqinisa Kanjani Ukuqaliswa Nokuqashwa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa, nokuthi izinkomba zokuthekelisa zizobhekwa yini; 3. Ukuthi iNigeria neLibya bazojoyina iqembu lokunciphisa ukukhiqiza. Ngokuvamile, ngenxa yesitoko esibalulekile samafutha kulo nyaka, i-OPEC kungenzeka ingacabangi ukunwebeka isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhiqiza ngesikhathi sesikhathi samanje, kepha akunqunyelwe ukuthi umhlangano wesikhashana uzoba ngekota yokuqala yonyaka olandelayo ukuze Nweba ukuncishiswa kokukhiqiza. Silinganisela ukuthi umhlangano we-JMMC namuhla uzogxila ekutheni ungakuqinisa kanjani ukubhekwa kanye nokuqaliswa kokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza. Kodwa-ke, kusenezinkinga eziningi zobuchwepheshe okufanele zixazululwe ekugadiseni ivolumu yokuthumela ngaphandle. Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa kweNigeria naseLibya akuzange kubuyiselwe ngokuphelele ezingeni elijwayelekile, ngakho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kube nokuncipha kokukhiqiza kungenzeka kungabi mkhulu.
itiyela

Imakethe yezimpahla ishele phansi, ukuhanjiswa kwe-SPAST kwe-asphalt kuthuthukisiwe
Ukubuka konke kokubukwa:
Imakethe yesikhathi esizayo yezemidlalo ephelele ikhombise ukuthambekela phansi izolo, ngokukhwehlela amalahle kanye ne-ferrosilicon ukuwa ngaphezulu kwama-5%, imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali ngokuvamile iwela, i-methanol nge-4%, irabha kanye ne-PVC ngaphezulu kwama-3%. Ikusasa le-asphalt elithile laligcina umkhuba ongezansi phakathi nokuhweba kosuku. Intengo yokuvala yenkontileka enkulu ngo-1712 izolo ntambama yayingu-2438 yuan / ton, eyayingu-34 yuan / ithoni ephansi kunezandla zokuhlala izolo, ngokwehla kwezandla ezingama-1.38%. Lokhu kudonsela phansi kuthinteka kakhulu emkhathini ophelele wemakethe yezimpahla, futhi akukho okunye ukuwohloka kwezisekelo ze-asphalt.

Imakethe yeSpoki yahlala izinzile, ngamanani entengo yokuthenga ajwayelekile ka-2400-2500 yuan / ithoni e-East China Market, 2350-2550 yuan / ithoni eSouth China Market. Njengamanje, ngemuva kokuphela kokuqashwa kwezemvelo, ukwakhiwa komgwaqo ophansi kancane kancane kuyabuyiselwa. Ngemuva kokuphela kokuqashwa kwezemvelo eShandong, ukuthunyelwa kokuhlaziywa sekuthuthukile, futhi isikhathi sase-East China siyalulama kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke, njengamanje, kunemvula eningi kule ndawo, futhi ivolumu ayikadedelwa. ENyakatho neChina, abathengisi bakhuthele kakhulu ekulungiseleleni izimpahla ngaphambi kweholide losuku lukazwelonke, kanti isimo sokuthumela sonke silungile isimo segesi sihle, futhi ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kubushelelezi. Njengamanje, isikhathi sokwakha enyakatho yeChina sicishe sibe yinyanga eyodwa ukusuka maphakathi kuya ezinsukwini eziyishumi zokugcina zika-Okthoba. Umthelela wezemvelo ekwakheni umgwaqo uyehla, futhi kufanele kube nomsebenzi wokujaha esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ukusekela isidingo se-asphalt. Ngosuku lweholide losuku lukazwelonke olusondela, isimo se-stock ephakathi eShandong, Hebei, enyakatho-mpumalanga kanye nezinye izifunda zehle kancane kancane ingcindezi yokusungula. Ngasohlangothini lwezindleko, iSpoki asphalt ibisesimweni esilinganayo. Ngemuva kokuthi intengo kawoyela ye-crude yaphakanyiswa, inzuzo yethiyori yokwehla kwe-yuan yancipha ngo-110 yuan kuya ku-154 yuan / ton ngesonto eledlule, kanye nesikhala sokunye ukulungiswa kwengalo kwentengo ephansi kulinganiselwe. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngenxa yomthelela wezinto zokuvikela ezemvelo ohlangothini olufunwayo kanye nokulawulwa komoya komoya ebusika, isidingo esizayo singase silindelwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngasekupheleni kwalo nyaka, umthamo wokukhiqiza wokucolisiswa asphalt ezifundeni ezahlukahlukene uzokhuphuka kakhulu, futhi amandla okukhiqiza wokucolisiswa asphalt azonyuswa kakhulu.

Kukonke, kuqhathaniswa nesidingo se-asphalt ngesizini yendabuko yendabuko, kunesikhala esilinganiselwe sokwehla okubucayi. Kulindelwe ukuthi ngokululama kwezokwakha ezansi esikhathini esizayo, kuzoba nesikhala esithe xaxa sokukhula.

Iziphakamiso zesu:
Intengo engama-2500 yuan, i-bargain isikhathi eside, naka ushintsho lwentengo yanyanga zonke.

Ingozi Yecebo:
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-asphalt ukweqisa, futhi ukunikezwa sekukhululiwe, futhi intengo kawoyela yamazwe aguqukayo kakhulu.

Izinketho zenani
Ukuthengisa okubanzi kwesidlo se-soya
Izinketho Zokudla Kwe-SoyBean

Njengenkontileka eyinhloko ngoJanuwari, intengo yesidlo sakusihlwa soya esizayo iyaqhubeka nokushintsha ngoSepthemba 21, futhi intengo yansuku zonke ivaliwe ku-2741 yuan / ton. Ivolumu yokuhweba kanye nesikhundla sosuku kwakungu-910000 no-1880000, ngokulandelana.

Ivolumu yokuhweba yezinketho zokudla kwe-soya ezinzile nanamuhla, ngenhla yezandla eziyi-11300 (i-unilateral, okufanayo ngezansi), kanye nesikhundla se-77700. Ngomthamo wenkontileka. ngo-70% wazo zonke izikhundla zenkontileka. Umkhawulo wesimo se-Unilateral we-SoyBean Meat Option waphumuzwa kusuka kuma-300 kuye ku-2000, futhi umsebenzi wokuthengiselana wemakethe ukhuphuke kakhulu. Isilinganiso sokudla kwe-soybean sibeka inketho yokuthola inketho yokushayela ivolumu yathuthelwa ku-0,52, kanye nesilinganiso sendawo yokubeka inketho yokuthola inketho kugcinwa ku-0.63, futhi umuzwa uhlala ungathathi hlangothi futhi unethemba. Kulindelwe ukuthi imakethe izogcina uhla oluncane lwe-oscillation ngaphambi kosuku lukazwelonke.

Ngemuva kokukhishwa kwe-USDA Supply nyangazonke yanyanga zonke kanye nombiko wokufuna, ukuguquguquka okuveziwe kwaqhubeka kwehla. NgoJanuwari, intengo yokuzivocavoca ye-soybean yokudlela ye-Flat Value Flat Supplent yathuthela ku-2750, ukuguquguquka okushiwo kwaqhubeka ukwehla ku-16.94%, kanye nomehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okusobala nosuku lwezinsuku ezingama-60. Ngemuva kokukhishwa kwe-USDA Supply nyangazonke yanyanga zonke kanye ne-September, isimo esasibonisa ukuguquguquka okuvela ekuguqukeni komlando kungahle kube sekupheleni, futhi intengo yediski kulindeleke ukuthi ilondoloze ukuguquguquka okuncane, futhi ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo kusezingeni eliphansi . Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi isikhundla sezinketho ezibanzi ze-Span (M1801-C-2800 ne-M1801-P-2600) zingathengiswa isinyathelo ngesinyathelo ngesinyathelo sokuvimbela ubungozi obukhuphukile ngempelasonto. Inzuzo nokulahleka kokuthengisa izinketho eziningi ze-Span yi-2 yuan / share.
Izinketho zikashukela

Intengo yenkontileka enkulu kaJanuwari yesikhathi esizayo kashukela esimhlophe sawela ngoSepthemba 21, futhi intengo yansuku zonke ivaliwe ku-6135 yuan / ton. Umthamo wokuhweba wenkontileka yesivumelwano sikaJanuwari kwakungu-470000, futhi isikhundla sasingama-690000. Ivolumu yokuhweba kanye nesikhundla sahlala sizinzile.

Namuhla, ivolumu yokuhweba ephelele yezinketho zikashukela yayingu-6700 (unilateral, ofanayo ngezansi), futhi isikhundla esiphelele sasingama-64700. Umkhawulo wesikhundla ongathandani naye we-2000, futhi ivolumu yokuhweba kanye nesikhundla sokuhweba kukhuphukile kakhulu. Njengamanje, umqulu wenkontileka ngoJanuwari wabalwa ngo-74% kanti isikhundla sibalwe ngo-57%. Ivolumu yanamuhla yokuhweba yezinketho zoshukela i-PC_ Ratio ihanjiswe ku-0.66, isikhundla se-PC_ Isilinganiso sahlala ku-0.90, futhi umsebenzi wezinketho zikashukela ezimhlophe wehle futhi_ amandla okuphendula aphendule imizwa anqunyelwe imizwa ayinqunyelwe.

Njengamanje, ukuguquguquka koshukela kwe-60 Njengamanje, umehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okusobala kanye nokuguquguquka komlando kwezinketho zenani eliphansi ngoJanuwari kuncishiswa ku-0.54%. Ukuguquguquka kukhuphuka, futhi ubungozi bokubeka iphothifoliyo ye-PASTE Option iyanda. Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi ubambe isikhundla senketho ebanzi ye-SPAN (Thengisa i-SR801P6000 ne-SR801C6400) ngokucophelela, futhi uvune inani lesikhathi sokuzikhethela. Namuhla, inzuzo kanye nokulahleka kwePortfolio ye-Sell Wide Span Portfolio (SR801P6000 ne-SR801C6400) ngu-4.5 yuan / share.
TB

"Ukuncishiswa kwesikali" kuxazululiwe, isivuno sebhondi yemali evuka eChina

Ukubuyekezwa Kwemakethe:
I-Treasure Bond Future Fuel yaguquguquka iphansi usuku lonke, ivaliwe kakhulu phansi, futhi umuzwa wemakethe awuzange ube phezulu. Inkontileka eyinhloko yeminyaka emihlanu i-TF1712 yavalwa ngo-0.07% ephansi ku-97.450 yuan, ivolumu yokuhweba engu-9179, ezingama-606 ngaphansi kosuku lokuhweba lwangaphambilini, kanye nezikhundla ezingama-64582, ezimbalwa ezimbalwa zosuku lokuhweba. Inani eliphelele lokuthengiselana kwalezi zinkontileka ezintathu lalingu-9283, ngokuncipha kuka-553, kanti isimo semali esiphelele sincishiswe ngo-135. Inkontileka eyinhloko yeminyaka eyi-10. Ukwanda kwe-7621, kanye nokwehla kwezandla ezingama-74 esikhundleni sika-75017

Ukuhlaziywa Kwemakethe:
Isitatimende se-FEDERREAL Reserve sika September ngoSepthemba sikhombise ukuthi ukuncishiswa okuningana kancane kancane kwaqalwa ngo-Okthoba kulo nyaka, kanti izinga lenzalo ye-Benchmark ihlala ingashintshiwe kusuka ku-1% kuya ku-1.25%. Kulindeleke ukuthi amanani entela avuswe futhi ngonyaka we-2017, okuholela ekwesabeni ukwesaba kwemakethe kokuqinisa imali esikhathini esifushane. Isivuno sama-US Treasure Bonds Rose kakhulu, futhi isivuno semakethe ye-Instalbank Cash Market sathinteka ekuphathweni, futhi uhla lokunyuka lwandiswa. Kulindelwe ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi neChina lizokwehlisa izinga lokungathathi hlangothi kwebhange eliphakathi nekota yesine, kodwa ngeke lithintwe ngamanani aphakathi ebhange eliphakathi nendawo laseChina.

Ithoni eliyisisekelo lokugcina ukuqina lihlala lifana nangaphambilini, futhi inhlokodolobha ihamba kancane usuku nosuku: I-Central Bank yenziwa kabusha eminye imisebenzi engama-40 billion ezinsukwini eziyi-40 nezinsuku ezingama-20 ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngoLwesine, kanye ne-BID enqoba inzalo Amanani ayengu-2.45% no-2.75% ngokulandelana, okwakufana nokugcina. Ngalo lolo suku, kwakukhona imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-60, okususa ngokuphelele ukuvuthwa kwemali. Imakethe evulekile yasebhange eliphakathi nendawo yokuvuthwa kwezinsuku ezimbili zilandelana, ukugcina ithoni yokuqina njengakuqala. Iningi le-Inter-Bank Seaper Repo repo Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kokuthi ingcindezi ye-liquidity yadalulwa, kwakungekho ukuhweba ngentshiseko emakethe, okukhombisa ukuthi imali yemakethe ibisacosha ngemuva kokuncishiswa kwe-Fed Fed MPA.

Isidingo esinamandla sama-CDB Bonds, Isidingo esibuthakathaka sokungenisa izibopho sokungenisa kanye ne-Export Banks: Isivuno esinqunyelwe seminyaka emi-3 esengeziwe se-China Development Bank sika-4.1970%, ibhidi Multiple is-7 Izibopho ezengeziwe zenzalo zingu-4.3486%, futhi ibhidi amaningi lingu-4.03. Isivuno se-BID sokuwina esinentshisekelo yeminyaka emi-3 elungisiwe yi-4.2801%, ibhidi Multiple ingu-2.26, inzalo eyengeziwe elungisiwe ngenzalo engu-4.3322%, ibhidi Multiple elengeziwe nge-4.3664%, ibhidi amaningi ngu-2.39. Imiphumela yokubhida emakethe eyinhloko ihlukaniswe, futhi isivuno sokuwina kwebhidi yalezi zingxenye ezimbili zesigaba sebhange le-China Development Bank ziphansi kunokulinganisa kwebhange likazwelonke lokuthuthukiswa kweChina, kanye nesidingo siqinile. Kodwa-ke, isivuno sokuwina esibhidi esisezingeni lesithathu sebhange lokungenisa kanye ne-Export Bank liphakeme kakhulu kunokulinganisa kwamanani e-China Bonds, kanye nesidingo sibuthakathaka.

Iziphakamiso zokusebenza:
Amabhuzu e-US Federal Reserve amabhuthi ancipha ngokusemthethweni aqaliswe ngokusemthethweni, futhi i-Federal Reserve ikhombisile isimo se- "eduze nokhozi futhi kude nejuba". Yize isivuno samabhondi oMgcinimafa asekhaya siphezulu ngenxa yomthelela ophangayo wesikweletu sase-US, ukungqubuzana okuyinhloko emakethe yeBond kusakhiweyo. I-Central Bank ibeke i-liquidity ezinzile futhi engathathi hlangothi ekuseni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, okuthintwe ukubikezela kwezomnotho kweChina ngekota yesine, i-Central Bank cishe ngeke ilandele i-Fed ukukhulisa amanani wenzalo isikhathi somthelela wengozi ye-Overseas Persive Iningi le-Inter-Bank Seaper Repo repo Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kokuthi ingcindezi ye-liquidity yadalulwa, kwakungekho ukuhweba ngentshiseko emakethe, okukhombisa ukuthi imali yemakethe ibisacosha ngemuva kokuncishiswa kwe-Fed Fed MPA. Gcina ukuphela kwekota yesikweletu yokuqala isikweletu esinqunyiwe esishaqekile.

Ukuzikhulula: Imininingwane ekulo mbiko ihlanganiswe futhi ihlaziywe yi-Huatai ikusasa, konke okuvela kwidatha eshicilelwe. Ukuhlaziywa kolwazi noma imibono evezwe embikweni akusho iziphakamiso zokutshala imali. Abatshalizimali bazothwala isahlulelo esenziwe yimibono embikweni kanye nokulahleka okungenzeka.